Turkey: post-race analysis 2020

Well. It’s hard to know where to start with that. The race was thoroughly entertaining, with drama throughout and a red sting in the tail near the end. Both bets were red, one a bit unluckily, but some longer term bets well-served by the result for various teams and drivers.

The track was very wet. Everyone save the Williams began on wet tyres.

Off the line it seemed the ‘dirty’ (even) side of the track was poorly served, except for Hamilton who made great progress off the line. The Racing Points retained their 1-2, with Verstappen losing half a dozen places before making up a couple because Ricciardo and Ocon collided, massively slowing the Aussie and spinning the Frenchman. Vettel charged up the order and Leclerc slid back down.

Bottas also spun at the first corner, his debut of at least a quartet of gyrating misadventures.

The Racing Points charged off, Verstappen tried to pass Vettel, and couldn’t, and calamity reigned as multiple drivers missed corners or had little off-track excursions. It was really rather good.

Stroll seemed in control, with a sizeable margin over Perez, who had about 10s further back to Vettel.

In the pit stops, a fantastic performance by Verstappen enabled him to leapfrog the German and set about catching Perez. Hamilton was now stuck behind Vettel yet couldn’t get past at all.

Further back, Leclerc had the earliest of stops for fresh inters which enabled him to make up ground but he was still around the lower reaches of the points.

At the sharp end, Stroll was slowly but surely losing time to Perez. And Verstappen was closing rapidly on the Mexican. Indeed, he got a rush of blood to the head, got too close, and lost control, spinning wildly around. This allowed Albon, then behind his team mate, to pass and flat-spotted Verstappen’s tyres, necessitating another pit stop. In retrospect, this lost the Dutchman a probable victory. He’s got a lot cooler in recent years but in this frustrating weekend showed that he still needs to work on his temperament.

Perez was within a second of Stroll when the Canadian was pitted for fresh inters, preventing any intra-team woe on the track and gifting the Mexican the lead.

Albon, meanwhile, had run out of grip, spun around, and also needed another stop. Bit of a poor day for Red Bull, all things considered.

Weird things were happening. Strange, mystical things, that had possibly occurred due to a timeslip from 2010. Vettel was driving away from Hamilton. And gaining on those ahead of him. The German was flawless throughout today, when almost everyone else spun or couldn’t make their tyres last. It’s true he had a little less pace than his team mate most of the time, but for a man who’s made quite a few mistakes lately it’s remarkable, and welcome, that he didn’t put a foot wrong today.

As the track continued to dry Hamilton got past, and Leclerc, who again gained by an early second stop (Ferrari made wise strategy calls today… also bizarre), cruised up to Vettel and passed him. Given they were around 3^rd and 13^th at the end of lap 1, that was very impressive from the Monegasque.

Meanwhile, the Red Bulls weren’t making huge progress, and Stroll was slowly losing ground. Having assuredly led for about half the race, it must’ve been dispiriting. Clearly a poor call from Racing Point, as they did last time out for Perez, whom they sensibly kept out.

Hamilton was miles faster and took the lead, but both he and Perez were rare men who could make do with a single stop, and whilst Hamilton drove off into the sunset for his seventh title the Mexican seemed set fair for 2^nd. Or was he? Because Leclerc was gaining by seconds a lap.

Perez locked up. Leclerc passed him on the final lap, but got too deep and went off. Perez reclaimed 2^nd. And Vettel nabbed 3^rd. Leclerc was lucky not to lose 4^th to Sainz, but that did turn my bet red, alas. Shade unlucky, but that’s life.

Sainz, incidentally, had a good race, flourishing in the uncertain conditions, and whilst Norris was a bit further back in 8^th, that’s still handy for McLaren on a day Racing Point scored well. Stroll ended up 9^th, but that’s still a little helpful for Racing Point. Renault, meanwhile, could only manage 10^th for Ricciardo (Ocon 11^th). In a very tight contest, that’s clearly a major blow for the team.

Red Bull ended up 6^th and 7^th. They’d seemed destined to win and possibly have a double podium at one stage but in the end all came to nought. The pace was there all weekend, but a little bit of bad luck for Albon and a misjudgement from Verstappen gave them a poor result.

And with that impressive win in tricky conditions, with his team mate lapped and spinning like a top, Hamilton claim a magnificent seventh title. Not the most challenging season for him, but he still trounced Bottas.

Here’s how the Constructors (battle for best of the rest) line up:
Racing Point 154
McLaren 149
Renault 136
Ferrari 130

Renault slip back and now must fear a resurgent Ferrari team shunting them down to 6^th. Racing Point take a small lead over McLaren but they’re still far from safe in that regard.

I also tipped and backed Perez to be best of the rest driver (which made me less than thrilled with the
previous race’s nonsense). Here’s how that battle is shaping up:
Perez 100
Leclerc 97
Ricciardo 96

Way to close to call. I’d probably make Leclerc the marginal favourite right now, despite a couple of very good races for Racing Point. Ricciardo’s a great driver, probably the best of the lot, but his car has lost some relative pace, it seems, as the season has progressed.

Anyway, it was a thoroughly entertaining race today, red, alas, but these things happen.

The next race is in a fortnight, the first of two in Bahrain (albeit on different rack layouts, unlike Austria).

Morris Dancer