Azerbaijan: post-race analysis 2019


Well, the bet didn’t come off and the race wasn’t that great, so easily the worst one of the year so far. Quite surprised by the low DNF rate, and zero crashing rate (discounting a reversing incident).

Raikkonen ended up with a pit lane start due to a tiny front wing infringement, and Kubica got one for a fuel flow irregularity.

Off the line, Hamilton started well but Bottas defended superbly to keep the Briton behind him and then pull a significant lead over the course of the first lap.

Unfortunately, that was also as close as the pair ever got.

Further back, Perez had a stonking start to pass Verstappen and drove well to keep the Dutchman behind him for a while, but eventually the Red Bull’s pace told and Verstappen passed the Mexican.

Leclerc was the only frontrunner (if you can call a chap starting 8th a frontrunner) to start on the slower medium tyre, although Gasly, starting last of the three pit lane fellows, did likewise. He lost a few places off the line but soon made them up, cutting his way through the field until he was, perhaps 15 laps or so in, hot on the heels of his team mate.

A strange thing then happened. Ferrari made a smart strategy call. They brought Vettel in and Leclerc continued on his merry way. Whilst all the other fast fellows had pitted, swapping softs for mediums, the Monegasque cruised into the lead. Unfortunately for him, a more predictable thing happened, and Ferrari kept him out too long (fearing his new soft tyres wouldn’t last more than 16/17 laps or so), costing him lots of time and putting him 5th, behind Verstappen.

Another odd occurrence happened. Ricciardo was passing Kvyat but locked up and went straight on, down a run-off area. But the angle of his departure meant the Russian also ended up unable to make the corner. Neither had any damage until the Aussie reversed and crashed, at low speed, into Kvyat, who was probably peeved by this point. Both ended up retiring due to damage.

I would not have bet on the biggest crash of the 2019 Azerbaijan Grand Prix being a reversing incident.

Grosjean also ended up boxing to retire, and Gasly’s Red Bull lost power and he was forced down an escape road, bringing out the virtual safety car. A shame, as he was running 6th and had very competitive pace, especially considering he’d started in the pit lane.

Leclerc was too far back from Verstappen to close up so Ferrari made a second smart decision and pitted him for fresh soft tyres, with which he duly snatched the fastest lap away from Bottas.

Mercedes enjoyed yet another 1-2 finish, with Bottas winning. Vettel got 3rd, and Verstappen 4th, with Leclerc 5th. Another weak weekend from Ferrari, and an unlucky one for Gasly. Perez was best of the rest, and it was fantastic for McLaren, who had Sainz 7th and Norris 8th for a double points finish. Stroll got 9th, so it was just as good for Racing Point, and Raikkonen scored again, with 10th, making him the only non-top 6 driver to score at every race so far.

Albon and Giovinazzi just missed out. Renault, and Hulkenberg particularly, were lacklustre, and Magnussen also failed to trouble the scorers. The two Williams finished a lap behind everyone else, again. Bit sad to see.

So, neither a classic nor a profitable race. Still, can’t have everything.

Drivers:
Bottas 87
Hamilton 86
Vettel 52
Verstappen 51
Leclerc 47

Leclerc’s points tally should be a bit higher due to Bahrain but the table as a whole does reflect that when Mercedes has been faster they’ve taken advantage of that and exploited their pace, whereas when Ferrari has been faster they’ve either cocked up or been unlucky. It’s a two horse race, but neither of them are prancing.

Constructors:
Mercedes 173
Ferrari 99
Red Bull 64
McLaren 18
Racing Point 17
Alfa Romeo 13
Renault 12
Haas 8
Toro Rosso 4
Williams 0

Mercedes have more points than Ferrari and Red Bull combined. Competitive, it is not. Unlike the midfield, which has four teams separated by half a dozen points. Alfa Raikkonen is the most consistent of the midfield, whilst the others appear to have more pace, and more reliability failures.

We’re off to Spain next, in a fortnight. Let’s hope it’s both more entertaining and more profitable.

Morris Dancer

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