China: pre-qualifying 2019
Incidentally, if you’ve
been following my tips do feel free to buy my book Crown of Blood (or
books, if you haven’t bought any of the trilogy yet). It’s a
rather good fantasy and only a few pounds.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Crown-Blood-Bloody-Trilogy-Book-ebook/dp/B07PLFC2PB/
Pre-practice I decided
to back (and mentioned on PB) Bottas for fastest qualifier, each way
(third the odds top 2) at 8.5 (9 with boost). He’s been very close
behind Hamilton in both qualifying sessions so far, and if Mercedes
is the fastest in China, which I think they were last year, then he
stands a good chance of a front row start. I’ve been mildly
surprised by just how quickly Ferrari, and Leclerc especially, have
seen their stock rise due to Bahrain. It was an impressive
performance but it was also one race of many this year.
Between the last race
and this, Raikkonen opined that it’s easier to follow cars under
the new regulations, contrary to what many had feared. This is also
backed up by Hulkenberg’s impressive performance (until his car ran
out of electricity) which saw him climb from 17th to, I
think, 6th. Increased churn from grid to flag may be the
result, but this also makes Gasly’s lacklustre début seem worse
(and it isn’t helped by comparison with Leclerc).
In other news, all four
Renault cars, having a 75% DNF rate last time out, now have new spec
MGU-Ks.
In first practice,
Vettel was quickest, a couple of tenths ahead of Hamilton, with
Leclerc lagging just half a tenth further back. Verstappen was a few
tenths behind, with a similar gap to Bottas, and then over half a
second to Ricciardo, Gasly, Kvyat, Stroll, and Grosjean. I know it’s
only practice, but Gasly was over a second behind Verstappen. He
needs to get his skates on.
Bottas topped second
practice, a mighty two-hundredths ahead of Vettel. Verstappen was
two-tenths further back, but as Hamilton was seven-tenths behind his
team mate that rather suggests he either had problems or was on
another programme. Hulkenberg and Sainz continued their good form,
separated by a mere half-tenth and the Spaniard was one-hundredths
ahead of Leclerc. Norris, Ricciardo, and Gasly rounded out the top
10.
At this stage I was
tempted to set up a hedge on the Bottas bet, at around 2.5 or 3, on
the Ladbrokes Exchange only for the market to seemingly disappear.
Ah, well.
Bottas is now 7 (7.5
with boost) to be the fastest qualifier. Given he’s been very close
behind Hamilton so far and qualifying in the first two races was
two-by-two, I think this is value (although obviously not as much as
the 9 I got for the pre-practice tip). I believe that’s still worth
backing if you didn’t go for the earlier tip.
I also decided to back,
with a small stake, Bottas each way (fifth the odds top 3) to win the
race, at 8.5 (9 with boost), as tipped by Mr. Sandpit.
Qualifying starts at
7am, and the race is just shortly thereafter on Sunday.
Morris Dancer
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