Azerbaijan: pre-race 2019
A very odd, prolonged
qualifying. Passively galling, as Mr. Sandpit’s tip was doomed by
misfortune, and the bet I had contemplated and decided against when
the terms changed ended up coming off. I neither lost nor gained
anything, yet felt peeved all the same.
As well as Gasly’s
pit lane start, Giovinazzi, who reached his first ever Q3, has a 10
place grid penalty for electronic parts being changed.
In the first part of
qualifying, we had the Williams at the back, which is, alas, usual.
Less usual is the crash that occurred when Kubica introduced his car
to the barriers, but the Pole was fine, although a moderately lengthy
delay ensued. Stroll, Haas, and Hulkenberg failed to progress, the
German’s slowness at least partly down to the car, whilst Stroll
will be a bit miffed to see his team mate make the top 10.
Leclerc dominated the
day, until his car (on medium tyres, as was Vettel but no-one else)
struck the same barrier with which Kubica had earlier become
intimately familiar. The Monegasque, as appears to be his wont,
blamed himself thoroughly. Despite another delay putting qualifying
about an hour behind where it should’ve been, his time remained
good enough to reach Q3, and Giovinazzi’s penalty means he should
start 9th. The delay meant the sun was sinking and Vettel
was forced to bolt on the faster soft tyre to reach the final part of
qualifying. Gasly, due to his pit lane start, didn’t bother
running. The four ‘real’ eliminations were Sainz, Ricciardo,
Albon, and Magnussen.
Would Vettel reclaim
Ferrari’s honour in qualifying? Not quite. A second run traffic
problem helped Bottas and hindered Hamilton, enabling the Finn to
achieve another pole. He’s doing rather well this year. Vettel was
a few tenths further back, possibly relatively disadvantaged by the
cooler temperatures, which will be less of a factor on race day.
Verstappen was 4th. The third row is Perez, whom I hope
gets a podium, and Kvyat. Norris and Giovinazzi qualified next
fastest but the Italian’s penalty throws him down the grid, so the
Briton lines up alongside Raikkonen. Leclerc and Sainz form the fifth
row.
At this stage my early
betting thoughts were:
Williams points
Hulkenberg DNF
Leclerc win
Verstappen win
The Williams are 19
each for points. Could happen. They’re reliable cars, just very
slow. However, it would almost certainly require around 10 DNFs, and
every single not to be classified bet is odds against. Possible…
I believe Hulkenberg’s
had a couple of DNFs around Baku and
his car is the most unreliable on the grid. He’s 3 not to be
classified, which I find quite tempting.
Leclerc starts 9th
and is 7 for the win. That might still be value given his pace around
the circuit, but there’s plenty of opportunity for collisions,
whether down to him or someone else.
Verstappen is 13 to
win. He was more competitive than I expected at the business end of
qualifying but I’m not sure how much of that is down to the later
running and cooler conditions. If only a little is due to the colder
temperatures, then he stands a pretty good crack at the race win, I
think. His problem is relative slowness on the straight and the high
probability of a safety car.
All of those are
interesting but it’s tricky to guess value at a circuit notorious
for comedy calamity and DNFs.
Anyway, the markets
took forever to awaken on Saturday, but the advantage is more markets
to peruse on Sunday. Here’s what I saw:
Alfa Romeo, double
points finish, 15
Under 15.5 classified
finishers, 1.72
Safety car, 1.14
Alfa Romeo has a DNF
rate of zero so far. So does Racing Point, but that team is 3.25 for
double points whereas Alfa are 15. Raikkonen has a great shot of
scoring, and Giovinazzi showed good pace to reach his first ever Q3
(he only starts down in 18th because of a penalty).
Probably requires some DNFs ahead. And those will, to a greater or
lesser extent, likely happen. Downside, of course, is if they happen
to either driver.
I think qualifying
showed the potential for crashing. Under 15.5 finishers at 1.72 is
the stand out bet I’ve seen at this time.
Safety car is very
likely, although I probably prefer the under 15.5 classified
finishers bet.
Bit pushed for time so
my usual approach of entering a prolonged meditative trance has to be
replaced with making a decision quite quickly. And that decision is
to back under 15.5 classified finishers at 1.72.
The post-race analysis
will likely be up on Monday.
Morris Dancer
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