China: pre-race 2019

The Bottas bet came off, by a wafer-thin margin, but winning’s winning (in this case, with a slice of luck). Although not hedging proved more profitable, I am wondering about rejigging my money a bit (even though I dislike doing that) so I can hedge more easily using Betfair. Anyway, a splendid start to the racing weekend.

Albon introduced his car to the barriers during the latter minutes of third practice, preventing him from playing during qualifying. Giovinazzi’s Alfa Romeo was unco-operative and the Italian was unable to get out either, meaning both were automatically eliminated at the first stage.

It was business as usual for Williams, at the back of the grid by about a second (although the two drivers were very close). Stroll was the only other chap properly axed here, as Albon and Giovinazzi didn’t even get to set times. Not great for the Canadian. Just as well he tends to start quickly.

In the second session the top five (Verstappen plus Mercedes and Ferrari) went out on the medium compound. Despite a theoretical 1.1s performance gap the tyres were fine (1.8s performance gap from soft to hard, for those wondering) and the quintet of quick chaps cruised to an easy escape to Q3, with Bottas fastest of the lot (until a late and unnecessary second Hamilton run saw him go a smidgen quicker). At this stage, Bottas was looking strong for pole, with Hamilton his only rival, and Ferrari too far back to challenge. The hyper-competitive midfield continued to be tighter than a miser’s purse strings. Kvyat was the fastest to be eliminated (ahead of Perez, Raikkonen, Sainz, and Norris), but was just two-hundredths off Ricciardo.

On the first runs in the final session, Bottas was faster than Hamilton by the slenderest of margins, a mere seven-thousandths of a second. Ferrari were a few tenths further back, with Verstappen managing to get between Vettel (the faster) and Leclerc. On the second runs Hamilton failed to improve and Bottas stretched his margin of victory to a mighty twenty-three thousandths. The Ferraris narrowed the gap a little and locked out the second row, Vettel seventeen-thousandths ahead of Leclerc.

Verstappen and Gasly line up on the third row. The Dutchman was two-tenths off the Ferraris, but eight-tenths ahead of his team mate. Gasly’s going to be replaced if he can’t start performing more competitively. Being behind Verstappen is one thing. Being almost a second off is another. Worth noting also that Verstappen appeared not to make it to the line in time for a second run in Q3.

After the horror show in Bahrain, Renault will be glad to line up 7^th and 8^th, Ricciardo pipping Hulkenberg by four-thousandths of a second (and just three-hundredths off Gasly). Magnussen and Grosjean comprise the fifth row (both failed to set any time due to missing the line, as per Verstappen’s non-second run).

Early betting thoughts:

Verstappen podium

Kvyat points

Verstappen wasn’t too far off Ferrari. And his race pace is likely to be relatively better due to the absence of swanky (or as swanky) qualifying modes for his engine. And the Red Bull was tasty in the race last year. I did back him (and mention on PB) with a small stake pre-practice at 16 (each way, fifth the odds top 3) to win, and I’m comfortable with that at the moment. He’s still 15. I think that’s too long, on an each way basis (again, still fifth the odds top 3). I could see him beating both Ferraris. His podium odds are 2.9, which is quite tempting.

Kvyat to score is simply because the Toro Rosso has good reliability so far, and he starts 11^th, giving him choice of tyre strategy. Plus, the four cars immediately ahead of him have 5 DNFs between them so far. He’s 1.9 for points. That may be value given his various advantages over those right ahead of him.

The weather forecast indicates almost no chance of rain.

In accordance with tradition, I perused the broader markets to see what else leapt out at me.

Magnussen, winner without the top 6, 8.5 (each way third the odds top 2)

Not a huge amount, to be honest. However, the Magnussen bet looks interesting. The Renaults are both around 2.8, with Magnussen next up (Kvyat’s odds the same). However, the Renaults have been prone to dire reliability, with a 75% DNF rate so far. Plus, running together, there’s a risk the second car will lose out at the pit stops. Magnussen made a mistake last race and didn’t score but he had a strong result in Australia. Bit tricky to tell, but 8.5 is worth considering.

No slam dunk bet but three all worth a look, I think. Having a hard time picking between them, to be honest.

I like the Kvyat and Magnussen bets the most (NB they come off if either chap, effectively, makes up a single place from grid to flag). I’m quite temped to back both, although it feels a shade extravagant.

Decided to back Kvyat to score at 1.9 (a mighty 1.95 with boost). Very difficult picking between that and the Magnussen bet. His pace through qualifying was very close to those ahead of him, and they have bad reliability, and he has choice of tyres.

Incidentally, anyone who followed Mr. Sandpit’s tip at 9 (each way was fifth the odds top 3) on Bottas to win may wish to consider hedging at 2.7 or so. I considered that, but decided to hold onto it as my stake was very small.

Anyway, let’s hope the race is entertaining and profitable. It starts just after 7am tomorrow.

Morris Dancer