Azerbaijan: pre-qualifying 2019


As soon as the winner market went up (fifth the odds top 3 on 15th April) I backed, with tiny stakes, seven midfield/backmarker drivers each way for the win. In recent years, even with the dominance of the top three teams, we’ve seen Perez and Stroll achieve podium results at Azerbaijan, largely due to the chaotic and crashing nature of the circuit (turns out Monaco + a massive straight isn’t conducive to finishing the race).

So, I backed, and tipped on PB, the following (prices Ladbrokes with boost):
Ricciardo 651
Hulkenberg 651
Magnussen 901
Grosjean 901
Raikkonen 1301
Perez 1751
Stroll 3001

Very much long shots, but also educated guesses. Anyway, I did advocate splitting one stake between the lot. We’ll see what happens (still odds against, of course).

First practice was curtailed by a manhole cover getting sucked up by the aerodynamic power of Russell’s Williams, thoroughly buggering his car and preventing the session from resuming (hundreds of covers had to be checked). The extent of the damage prevented the unlucky Briton from running in second practice, though he should be ok for the third session.

For what it’s worth, Leclerc was fastest and Vettel was behind him but they were the only chaps who set times.

Second practice had a rather fuller time sheet, but the same chaps were at the top, Leclerc three-tenths ahead of his team mate. Hamilton, Verstappen, and Bottas followed, with Kvyat (who had something of a crash) next. Sainz, Albon, the lacklustre Gasly, and Norris rounded out the top 10.

For missing a call to the weigh bridge in second practice, Gasly has been punished with a pit lane start for the race. Not great, especially given he really needs to improve his performances.

Leclerc was top, again, in third practice, two-tenths ahead of his team mate Vettel. Verstappen was next but more than a second down the road, a couple of tenths ahead of Bottas and Hamilton. Kvyat, Magnussen, Albon, Perez, and Raikkonen rounded out the top ten.

At this stage, Leclerc is looking tasty for pole position with Vettel likeliest to cause an upset or pick up the pieces if the Monegasque makes a mistake. That said, I do not believe the Mercedes chaps are over a second behind Ferrari so we’ll see what sandbagging has occurred shortly.

Leclerc’s just 1.5 for pole. Vettel 3.5 and Hamilton 4.5.

I’m more tempted by each way (fifth the odds top three) on Bottas at 13, (14 with boost). Think he has a decent shot of being top three and there’s always a chance that one of those ahead of him will screw up and crash. However, as I write this, the each way aspect changed to a third the odds for top two, and that doesn’t tempt me.

So, no bet. I suspect Mr. Sandpit’s earlier tip of Leclerc for pole will prove profitable, and we shall soon see.

Not sure if the pre-race ramble will be up later today or tomorrow morning.

Morris Dancer

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