Azerbaijan: pre-qualifying 2019
As soon as the winner
market went up (fifth the odds top 3 on 15th April) I
backed, with tiny stakes, seven midfield/backmarker drivers each way
for the win. In recent years, even with the dominance of the top
three teams, we’ve seen Perez and Stroll achieve podium results at
Azerbaijan, largely due to the chaotic and crashing nature of the
circuit (turns out Monaco + a massive straight isn’t conducive to
finishing the race).
So, I backed, and
tipped on PB, the following (prices Ladbrokes with boost):
Ricciardo 651
Hulkenberg 651
Magnussen 901
Grosjean 901
Raikkonen 1301
Perez 1751
Stroll 3001
Very much long shots,
but also educated guesses. Anyway, I did advocate splitting one stake
between the lot. We’ll see what happens (still odds against, of
course).
First practice was
curtailed by a manhole cover getting sucked up by the aerodynamic
power of Russell’s Williams, thoroughly buggering his car and
preventing the session from resuming (hundreds of covers had to be
checked). The extent of the damage prevented the unlucky Briton from
running in second practice, though he should be ok for the third
session.
For what it’s worth,
Leclerc was fastest and Vettel was behind him but they were the only
chaps who set times.
Second practice had a
rather fuller time sheet, but the same chaps were at the top, Leclerc
three-tenths ahead of his team mate. Hamilton, Verstappen, and Bottas
followed, with Kvyat (who had something of a crash) next. Sainz,
Albon, the lacklustre Gasly, and Norris rounded out the top 10.
For missing a call to
the weigh bridge in second practice, Gasly has been punished with a
pit lane start for the race. Not great, especially given he really
needs to improve his performances.
Leclerc was top, again,
in third practice, two-tenths ahead of his team mate Vettel.
Verstappen was next but more than a second down the road, a couple of
tenths ahead of Bottas and Hamilton. Kvyat, Magnussen, Albon, Perez,
and Raikkonen rounded out the top ten.
At this stage, Leclerc
is looking tasty for pole position with Vettel likeliest to cause an
upset or pick up the pieces if the Monegasque makes a mistake. That
said, I do not believe the Mercedes chaps are over a second behind
Ferrari so we’ll see what sandbagging has occurred shortly.
Leclerc’s just 1.5
for pole. Vettel 3.5 and Hamilton 4.5.
I’m more tempted by
each way (fifth the odds top three) on Bottas at 13, (14 with boost).
Think he has a decent shot of being top three and there’s always a
chance that one of those ahead of him will screw up and crash.
However, as I write this, the each way aspect changed to a third the
odds for top two, and that doesn’t tempt me.
So, no bet. I suspect
Mr. Sandpit’s earlier tip of Leclerc for pole will prove
profitable, and we shall soon see.
Not
sure if the pre-race ramble will be up later today or tomorrow
morning.
Morris Dancer
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