US: pre-race 2018
Well, that was close.
But red. Raikkonen was nine-thousandths off being a green bet, and
seven-hundredths off being a very green bet, but, in the end, he was
not quite fast enough. Frustrating, although it is at least good that
my basic sentiment (it’s close, his odds are too long) proved
accurate.
The first session of
qualifying had the usual suspects, mostly, departing but a few
interesting incidents. Both McLarens and Williams failed to progress.
More surprisingly, Ericsson didn’t escape (his team mate would go
on to Q3). Both Toro Rossos went out despite penalties meaning
they’ll start at the back, and looked rather competitive.
Verstappen did enough to make Q2 but a seemingly innocuous encounter
with a sausage kerb buggered his suspension and he played no further
part in qualifying.
So, Q2 had the odd
situation of both Toro Rossos (by choice) and Verstappen not running
again, meaning we’d lose 2 of 12 racers rather than 5 of 15. It was
extremely close. Hulkenberg beat Sainz by two-thousandths, and that
was the difference between making Q3 and not. Magnussen was a little
off the pace but will still start 12th. Also worth noting
that the Mercedes, Vettel, and Ricciardo set times (and will thus
start) on the supersoft tyre, with Raikkonen going on the ultrasoft.
Faster, but won’t last as long in the race.
Would Q3 be close? Yes
indeed. Very close, very exciting, fantastic from a spectator
perspective, and tantalising yet ultimately frustrating from a
betting point of view. Hamilton ended up on pole, with Vettel barely
six-hundredths behind him. Raikkonen was nine-thousandths off Vettel,
with Bottas cocking up his final lap and a few tenths further back (I
think that exaggerates any real pace difference, to be honest).
Ricciardo was nearly a
second off the top four, and almost as far ahead of Ocon, who
qualified 6th. Hulkenberg and Grosjean were close behind,
with similar small gaps to Leclerc and Perez.
It’s looking very
tight at the top, with Raikkonen on a different strategy to all those
around him, and amongst the midfield. Ricciardo may have a lonely
race.
Initial (well, initial
nine and a half hours after I went to bed last night) betting
thoughts:
Vettel, win each way
Force India, double
points finish
Vettel is 6.5 to win.
That’s interesting. He looks faster than Bottas and Ferrari may
(overtly) move Raikkonen out of the way for him. There’s also a
chance he’ll just be faster than Hamilton, difficult to say how the
cars will stack up on race day.
Force India are 1.72
for a double points finish. Bit tight. There’s a decent chance of
but the odds are not fantastic.
Perused the markets and
saw the following:
Red Bull, top scoring
team, 21
Vettel, not to be
classified, 7
Perez, win group 3,
3.25
Bottas, betting without
Hamilton and Vettel, 3.75
Perez, betting without
big 6, 9.5
If the Mercedes and
Ferraris come together at the start, and Red Bull don’t DNF,
they’re near certain to top score (3rd + 4th
= 27 points). Iffy scenario, but not impossible. 21 might be a shade
tight.
Vettel’s made a
series of misjudgements recently. The start involves an uphill climb
to a blind corner. He might not survive the first lap, either due to
his own failing or that of someone else. Hmm.
Group 3 includes Perez,
Magnussen, Sainz, and Alonso. Magnussen has looked a bit below par
all weekend, and the McLaren looks a bit of a dog. Sainz, starting
just behind Perez and with choice of tyres, might be a bigger threat.
But I think Perez ought to be favourite to win the group, rather than
(narrowly, it’s tight) third favourite.
Bottas is narrowly
shorter than Raikkonen (1.61 versus 1.66) to be on the podium yet
3.75 to be winner without Hamilton/Vettel. I’ve backed that each
way (third the odds top 2). He starts on the supersoft, whereas
Raikkonen’s on the ultrasoft (contrary to all those around him).
Perez starts 10th,
however, that was due to a slightly poor final part of qualifying.
Both driver and car are very reliable, and I think he has a decent
chance of rising through the order. Maybe tricky to get ahead of all
the others, but he’s got a realistic chance. Not sure if 9.5 is
value, though.
Just the one tip in the
end: Bottas at 3.75 (each way) to be winner without Hamilton/Vettel.
The race starts at the
slightly more civilised hour of a little after 7pm. Let us hope
Bottas triumphs. The post-race ramble will be up tomorrow.
Morris Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment