Mexico: pre-qualifying 2018

We have just three races left, and it’s thought this one is the best chance for Red Bull to do well.

But first, a couple of comments on the last race. Mercedes had excessive tyre wear, something that they’ve attributed to a last minute change to water pumps, with the cars effectively being incorrectly put back together and a 50kg imbalance. That seems quite high, but there we are.

There’s also a wheel story, with the team, facing a potential challenge from Ferrari, closing up holes in the wheels which some say constitute a moveable aerodynamic part (and therefore one that is illegal). It’s unclear if they’ll be present in Mexico, but the change may well have cost Mercedes a little pace.

Also worth noting the massive Mercedes/Ferrari to Red Bull performance gap in qualifying and the practically zero difference between all three teams in the race.

From my 2016 post-race analysis:

Notes to self for future:

Very hard to pass in Mexico. Thinner air reduces the effectiveness of DRS and slipstreams.

Stupid track surface which means degradation is minimal. One stops very likely.

Not a car breaker.

If we do have a single stop then that may be to the benefit of Red Bull, who seem relatively gentle on their tyres. Could well suit Perez too, who is kind to his tyres and also particularly adept on twisty tracks (and the Force India’s not bad in a straight line).

Gasly has penalties for new parts, and will be starting from the back.

Verstappen topped first practice, half a second ahead of Ricciardo. The next two cars, surprisingly, were Renaults, Sainz ahead of Hulkenberg, narrowly ahead of Hamilton and Bottas. Vettel, Raikkonen, Hartley and Latini (standing in for Ocon at Force India) rounded out the top 10.

In second practice, it was the same top two although Verstappen’s lead over Ricciardo was down to just a tenth and a half. Sainz was next albeit over a second off the Red Bulls and one-thousandth of a second ahead of Vettel. Hulkenberg was a tenth further back, fifteen-thousandths ahead of Hartley, who was thirty-nine thousandths ahead of Hamilton, who was thirty-three thousandths ahead of Raikkonen, who was seven-thousandths ahead of Bottas, who was twenty-seven thousandths ahead of Perez.

In short, there’s a vast yawning chasm between Red Bull and the rest, in practice at least, and two-tenths cover 2^nd to 9^th in second practice. I fully expect things to be closer in qualifying (party mode) but right now Red Bull are looking damned tasty. For that matter, Renault and Hartley are looking competitive too.

At this stage, things are intriguingly poised. Will Red Bull retain their seemingly massive advantage? Can Renault hold onto being best of the rest? How will Ferrari and Mercedes perform?

In third practice the times are tricky to assess because it was a drying track with a lot of traffic. Bottas’ time is not remotely representative as his hydraulics died. Magnussen didn’t get out because his intercooler broke. Verstappen was fastest, a quarter of a second ahead of Hamilton. Vettel was a tiny margin further back, and there was nearly half a second between him and Ricciardo (who suffered some battery problems, as did Verstappen). Raikkonen and Leclerc were both within a tenth of the Aussie, Leclerc’s time (briefly the fastest) very impressive. A quarter of a second back was Sainz, then Gasly, Ericsson, and Hulkenberg.

Cooler temperatures seem to be relatively harming the Renault engine. Sauber are now looking very tasty, and the pace of the top three teams seem pretty damned close. There’s a small chance of rain during qualifying.

Given all that, I think finding value might be rather tricky. Nevertheless, I had a quick look.

Hmm. The only things that catch my eye are Raikkonen, each way, for fastest qualifier or the win, 21 and 17 respectively on Ladbrokes. Red Bull’s battery problems and the cooler temperatures, plus the party mode, could make qualifying the usual four horse race. If Bottas has a grid penalty due to the hydraulic problem (or it just can’t be mended in time), then suddenly we’re down to three cars (Hamilton, Vettel, and Raikkonen).

Hmm. That 21 on Raikkonen just looks too long to me. So I backed it, each way, for the fastest qualifying time. Set up a hedge on the Ladbrokes Exchange at 3.

I hadn’t intended to back anything but the Red Bulls, Hamilton and Vettel are all under 5, yet Raikkonen’s out at 21. In the last two qualifying sessions at Mexico, he was ahead of Vettel once and behind him once. If he beats Vettel then the odds on the bet coming off, maybe outright, are pretty good.

Qualifying starts at 7pm, so the pre-race ramble will be up tomorrow. And keep an eye on the weather forecast. Off-chance it may get slippery.

Morris Dancer