US: post-race analysis
A rather good race,
although my Bottas bet was an utter misjudgement. Slightly annoyed to
return to the early season form of good judgement meeting bad luck
for some bets, and plain bad judgement for others. Still, the race
was good and Red Bull’s odd return to form puts them in good shape
for Mexico (but hedge. The DNF rate remains atrocious).
Off the line a miracle
happened. Raikkonen passed someone, and that someone was Lewis
Hamilton. Bottas very nearly got passed by Ricciardo but managed to
retain his place. Sainz got a flyer, and Ocon went backwards.
The first lap had a
number of crashes. Grosjean piled into Leclerc. The Frenchman
retired, and, later on, so did his Monegasque victim. Alonso was
shunted into by Stroll, taking out the Spaniard (the Canadian
continued).
Vettel was racy and
looking to pass Ricciardo, but he was clumsy, again. Wheels knocked,
the Aussie survived whilst the German pirouetted and undid all his
previous good work. Had that not happened, things could’ve been
different on the podium.
The Renaults were
circulating comfortably behind the top dogs, with Force India a few
seconds behind them and Magnussen a little further back.
Ricciardo was
performing very well. Certainly better than his engine, which decided
to go on strike. He lost all power and pulled over for his seventh
DNF of the year.
At the sharp end, a VSC
emerged around lap 11 or so. Bit early, but Hamilton pitted, swapping
his supersofts for softs, the hardest compound (ironically). He
emerged ahead of Verstappen, behind a predictably compliant Bottas.
Within a few laps he was within about 10s of Raikkonen’s leading
Ferrari, and Mercedes were looking rather smart.
A strange thing
happened. Verstappen, who had started 18th and was on the
soft tyres, switched onto the supersoft. The Dutchman would be proved
wise, as the soft didn’t necessarily last as long as others thought
they would.
Further down the order,
the Force Indias pitted with poor timing. Ocon retained his place but
Perez was passed in the pit stops by Magnussen and, though he got
very close, couldn’t overtake the Dane. The Renaults kept their
positions as best of the rest, although Sainz was unlucky to get a 5s
penalty for leaving the track and gaining an advantage on the first
lap (I saw the footage and it was minor).
The other chaps started
to pit, at the top this was all shifting from super- and ultrasoft to
soft tyres, as Hamilton had earlier done. But it appeared that the
Briton had lashed the rubber too much, and his rear tyres were soon
looking gnarlier than an ent with a hangover. Raikkonen, Verstappen, Bottas, and
Vettel were all gaining rapidly, seconds per lap. Mercedes were
indecisive, delaying the necessity of pitting Hamilton again.
Presumably they wanted him to have fresh rubber for as long as
possible, but in so doing they gave him a bigger gap to close, which
would cost him.
Hamilton pitted.
Raikkonen led the race with Verstappen about 4s back. The Briton was
perhaps 10s or so behind. But on fresh tyres his pace was fantastic,
taking seconds per lap. Behind the trio, Bottas was a short way ahead
of Vettel (the Mercedes Finn very much looked like a number two
driver today, alas). Verstappen had undercut Bottas during the pit
stop phase, where Mercedes kept their man out a couple of laps too
long.
Verstappen was gaining
on Raikkonen, Hamilton was gaining on both. Vettel was closing on
Bottas. There were 15 or so laps of 56 left to go.
Verstappen got within
2s of Raikkonen. Hamilton got within 2s of Verstappen. Soon, all
three were covered by 2.5s. On the penultimate lap, Verstappen went
too deep into a corner after a straight. Hamilton sought to go
around, but the Dutchman drove brilliantly, and fairly, to keep his
British rival behind him. Raikkonen held on for his first win since
2013, achieving more wins (21) than any other Finn. Verstappen
got a staggeringly good 2nd place, having started 18th.
Vettel passed Bottas
very near the end to claim 4th. A day to forget for
Bottas. Never looked a threat, and spent the race being slower than
those around him and drifting backwards.
A day to remember for
Renault. Hulkenberg strengthened his tenuous grip on the hotly
contested position of best of the rest, and Sainz was right behind
him, giving a huge boost to Renault’s close Constructors’ battle
with Haas (helped by Grosjean’s retirement). Ocon was 8th,
followed by Magnussen and Perez, in a slightly disappointing result
for Force India. A combination of a poor start and ill-timed pit
stops cost them. However, Magnussen did fairly well to get 9th,
as he’d looked a bit off the pace earlier in the weekend.
Hartley, Ericsson, and
Vandoorne were out of the points. Toro Rosso looked to have good pace
but the engine changes hamstrung them, as they started from the back
of the grid. Next came Gasly, Sirotkin, and Stroll (who received a
drive-through for the Alonso incident, though I’m not sure it changed a
huge amount).
Very interesting race.
The Raikkonen/Hamilton situation was due to strategic misjudgement
from Mercedes. The real surprise was Verstappen’s fantastic
pace (Ricciardo looked good too but his reliability failure means we
can’t say how that would’ve turned out). He was competitive on
different compounds, low and high fuel, able to defend against
Hamilton on fresher tyres. Impressive stuff. I do wonder whether Red
Bull could be in good shape for Mexico (I always forget how the
altitude affects aero, might have to try checking my old articles to
remind me).
Drivers’:
Hamilton 346
Vettel 276
Raikkonen 221
Bottas 217
Hamilton extends his
lead by a tiny margin. Still near certain to claim the title. Vettel
would’ve taken points out of him if it weren’t for his mistake
with Ricciardo. For those with an eye on the close battle for 3rd,
Raikkonen retook it. Just 4 points separate the Finns.
Drivers’ (best of the
rest):
Hulkenberg 61
Magnussen 55
Perez 54
Ocon 53
Alonso 50
Sainz 45
That’s pretty damned
tight. It might be enough for Hulkenberg to hold on, but the Force
Indias have been scoring pretty handily.
Constructors’:
Mercedes 563
Ferrari 497
Red Bull 337
Renault 106
Haas 86
McLaren 58
Force India 48
Toro Rosso 30
Sauber 27
Williams 7
Sauber must still fancy
their chances of surpassing Toro Rosso. Might’ve done it today, had
Leclerc not been the victim of an RTA. Renault’s lead over Haas was
helped a lot by their fantastic result, almost the best they can
realistically hope for. Force India narrowed the gap to McLaren from
15 to 10 points, but it could’ve been better for the Pink Panthers.
The next race, Mexico,
is the coming weekend. It is notable for the altitude, and for me
forgetting how that affects the cars. Mostly tight and twisty, there
is a big straight. I think. Times will probably be similar to the US,
hopefully without an unnecessary delay to qualifying.
It was at this point
I discovered that Ocon and Magnussen were both disqualified (above
figures out of date).
Obviously, bad for the
Force India bet (although Perez does rise to where Ocon was, so not
disastrous). Hartley and Ericsson therefore get the final points
positions. Toro Rosso extend their lead over Sauber by 1 point.
Why disqualified? Ocon
exceeded the maximum fuel flow on lap 1, and Magnussen exceeded
maximum fuel usage for the race.
Morris Dancer
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