Mexico: pre-race 2018


Qualifying was close and exciting, but, alas, not profitable. I really thought Red Bull would be out of it, given the narrow gap in final practice and the other engines’ swanky modes, but that shows what I know. Kudos to Mr. Sandpit, who correctly suggested Ricciardo for pole (at around 7.6).

In the first part of qualifying both Williams and Vandoorne failed to progress. No great surprise. But both Haas cars dropped out at this stage too (apparently, similar happened last year). Not sure why, but sometimes certain circuits suit, or not, certain cars (McLaren tend to do well in Australia, for example).

Gasly didn’t bother running in Q2 due to his many penalties. Alonso failed to progress and Hartley was last of those who set a time, albeit fourteen thousandths off Perez. However, it looks like the Force Indias tried something clever (or too clever by half, we’ll see tomorrow), setting their times on the supersoft (hardest compound) so they’d be just outside the top 10 and have a free tyre choice. Passing in Mexico is very hard, and if those ahead have to pit early and get stuck in traffic, it could prove quite cunning.

In the final part of qualifying, I thought Hamilton had done enough, but Verstappen’s time just pipped him. Yet, it was Ricciardo who went less than three hundredths faster to deny the Dutchman his first pole (and the record for the youngest man to start in 1st). Ricciardo, who had looked behind his young team mate all weekend, was delirious. Verstappen was not.

Vettel lines up alongside Hamilton, and the first corner may very well see collisions aplenty. Behind them is the Finnish row, Bottas ahead of Raikkonen.

Hulkenberg led the second division, a few tenths ahead of Sainz. Leclerc and Ericsson line up behind. I do wonder if they’ll be vulnerable to some pouncing Pink Panthers. Or maybe Alonso, for that matter. His car isn’t great but he’s often very tasty on the first lap.

At this stage, my betting thoughts were:
Red Bull, top score
Ricciardo/Verstappen, not be classified
Ocon, Alonso, Perez, winner without the top 6

Red Bull are 1.4 to top score. Given the incredibly high DNF rate, that does not appeal to me.

Verstappen is 4.33 not to be classified, Ricciardo is 4. Ricciardo has the highest DNF rate this year, 7/18. That’s pretty tempting, especially given the first corner can be a bit feisty.

In the betting without the big 6 market (third the odds top 2 for each way), Ocon is 6.5, Alonso 15, and Perez 13. Hmm. Worth considering. Particularly the Force Indias.

I was surprised the entire range of markets appeared to be up on Ladbrokes this morning (I checked before 8am), as well as the 2019 Drivers’ title market, so I had a perusal:
Ricciardo win, Hulkenberg top 6, Perez points, Ferrari fastest lap, 34
Hamilton win, Bottas podium, Hartley points, 51

If Ricciardo actually finishes, he had a good chance of winning. Hulkenberg being top 6 requires someone ahead to drop out (possible) or suffer an accident and traffic. Perez getting points could work with the contra-strategy of Force India. Ferrari for fastest lap might be tricky, not necessarily due to pace but because this requires clear air and the right tyres at the right time. Quite a few contingencies, but it’s 34 for a reason.

Hamilton winning works if the Red Bulls smash into one another, or plain break down. That would then naturally (all else being equal) lift Bottas to the podium. Hartley getting points is knottier. His pace isn’t all that bad, but the problem is overtaking. Even if the Red Bulls double DNF, that only raises Hartley to 12th. Nevertheless, 51 is pretty long.

It’s not the most exciting thing in the world, but right now Ricciardo at 4 to not be classified just looks too good. He’s got a 39% DNF rate. Ocon to be winner without the big 6 at 6.5 (each way) is also interesting.

In the end I decided to back:
Ricciardo, not to be classified, 4
One stake split equally between Ocon and Perez to be winner without big 6 (each way), at 6.5 and 13 respectively

Race starts a little after 7pm. I’m expecting a frantic first lap and mostly a procession after that, but we’ll see.

Morris Dancer

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