Mexico: post-race analysis 2018

The Perez bet didn’t come off almost entirely due to bad luck. He had one-stopped, as had those around him, was behind Hulkenberg but ahead of Leclerc, so the each way part of the bet would’ve come off. However, a very rare Force India reliability failure forced him to box and retire. Ocon also suffered misfortune, with an early entanglement forcing a lap one pit stop, the two stops relegating him into the pointless positions.

I had to admit, I wasn’t sure if Ricciardo’s bet came off or not. I think the definition is anyone finishing within the last 10% of laps counts as classified, so my thought was he probably counts as not classified, but I had to log on to find out (it’d irk me not knowing overnight).

Off the line, Verstappen started perfectly, aided by Ricciardo starting dreadfully. Ricciardo dropped a few places, and Vettel’s early braking into the first corner compromised Raikkonen, who had to do likewise and got passed by a Renault (though the Finn soon passed in return).

Verstappen drove a perfect race, cruising effortlessly away from those vainly pursuing him. Indeed, we rarely saw him, particularly as there was often close action behind, not only in the midfield but between Ricciardo, Vettel, and Hamilton. Bottas appeared some way off the pace all race, and though the same was true of Raikkonen, the red Finn had the excellent excuse that he was the only one of the top five to reach the finish with just a single stop (earning him a podium place).

Early on, Alonso was very unlucky to get some debris from someone else’s accident jammed in his front wing. He was forced to retire the car, though I’m unsure if it was solely down to this or due to another problem. This brought out a first VSC.

A second emerged around lap 31 when Sainz, who had been doing very well, had to pull over when his car failed. At this stage, it appeared high tyre wear was changing a likely one stop race into two stops for most cars.

One chap not doing that was Sergio Perez, who had finally got some clear air and had been keeping Sainz (and Hulkenberg) comfortably behind him. However, the Mexican did eventually box for new tyres, emerging behind Hulkenberg. A tussle with Leclerc ensued, with the pesky Monegasque being passed only to reclaim the place. Perez passed once more and retained the position. The three chaps looked set to finish that way, only for the Force India to do that rarest of things for a Pink Panther: suffer a reliability failure. Perez boxed, and what would’ve been 7^th became a DNF (only his second this year).

At the sharp end, tyres were fraying, and so was Hamilton’s temper. For the second race in a row the Mercedes was chewing its rubber like a starved gimp. The other teams were also suffering high wear, but nowhere near as bad. Hamilton came into the pits and trundled around to the end. Not heroic, but sensible.

Vettel had passed Ricciardo once on track due to traffic absolutely ruining the Aussie’s hopes. It seemed the same might happen again, especially as Vettel’s ultrasoft tyres were younger than Ricciardo’s. The German was homing in and getting damned close, but Ricciardo kept his head and kept his place. There was a question mark over whether his tyres would last the distance, but it was the car itself (probably the engine) that let him down. A puff of smoke foretold his doom. Moments later, Ricciardo had to pull over and retire, yet again. That’s 8/19 DNFs in the season to date.

Vettel was promoted to lead hunter of Verstappen, but despite the Dutchman sensibly turning down everything necessary, his advantage was such he easily retained 1^st. Raikkonen got 3^rd, making it a lacklustre double podium for Ferrari as they lost the Drivers’ title to Hamilton, who finished 4^th and became only the third man after Fangio and Schumacher to achieve a quintet of titles.

Bottas’ mediocre performance got him 5^th. Hulkenberg got 6^th for Renault, helping further cement their advantage over Haas (who finished last with both drivers). Behind him was Leclerc in 7^th, then Vandoorne 8^th and Ericsson 9^th.

The double points for Sauber pushes them ahead of Toro Rosso. Vandoorne’s result, whilst unhelpful for my Force India to beat McLaren bet, was pretty impressive but does make me wonder if they’d’ve had a double points result had Alonso not suffered misfortune once again (it seems to seek him out, almost as much as Ricciardo). Gasly ended up 10^th, which isn’t bad considering he started right at the back.

Of the top runners only Raikkonen managed to do it with just one stop (Verstappen may have been able to achieve this but given his time advantage and having fresh tyres available the team wisely gave him a second stop on the safety first principle). Behind, Hulkenberg, Leclerc etc all managed a single stop. Those that went for two, such as Ocon (although that wasn’t by choice) slipped out of the points).

After the race, an understandably disheartened Ricciardo said that Gasly could drive his car for the last couple of races.

Drivers’:

Hamilton 358 – and the title

Vettel 294

Raikkonen 236

Bottas 227

Verstappen 216

If Raikkonen gets 3^rd, that’d annoy me a bit as I tipped Bottas at 16 or so (fifth the odds top three). That said, I do have a tiny sum on Raikkonen on the same basis at 61, so it wouldn’t be all bad. Verstappen is not out of the running but it’d be a stretch. He could use rain in Brazil.

Drivers’ Division B:

Hulkenberg 69

Perez 57

Magnussen 53

Alonso 50

Likely to fall Hulkenberg’s way. He’s been consistent and quick. Renault looked on the back foot a few races ago but have done better recently. The car’s pretty good reliability has helped.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 585

Ferrari 530

Red Bull 362

Renault 114

Haas 84

McLaren 62

Force India 47

Sauber 36

Toro Rosso 33

Williams 7

Force India need to make up 16 points to pass McLaren (unsure what happens if it’s 15 and they tie). Not impossible but the double pointless result means it’s a big ask in just two races. Ferrari took a small chunk out of Mercedes’ lead, but the advantage clearly remains with the Silver Arrows. Renault have all but sealed 4^th and best of the rest. Sauber overhaul Toro Rosso but the gap is only 3 points, so they can’t relax.

A mixed weekend, filled with misjudgement at times, insight elsewhere, and luck good and bad. It evened out and I finished ahead, partly thanks to an early Verstappen bet and Mr. Sandpit’s excellent Ricciardo pole tip. The race was more entertaining than I thought it might be, largely due to the rapid tyre disintegration.

The next race is Brazil, in a fortnight.

Morris Dancer