Japan: pre-race 2018

With changing conditions, the result could’ve gone a bit wonky (and did, for Red Bull and Ferrari). Happily the bet’s each way aspect came off, with Bottas qualifying in 2^nd, making it a small winner.

Qualifying began with the threat of rain in the air (not unexpectedly). The first session had a couple of surprises, but neither was weather-related. Ericsson, whose Sauber had been looking good, went for an excursion in a gravel trap and ended up with three wheels on his wagon. Further up, the fastest to be ejected at this stage was Hulkenberg. The German had spun in third practice and Renault had done well to repair his car, but his running was limited and he failed to improve on his final lap (unlike many others, including his team mate). That said, he wasn’t miles off the pace so it suggests the Renault just isn’t all that quick here. Sirotkin and both McLarens also failed to progress, with Stroll doing well to make Q2.

Q2 also saw an upset. Early on, Ricciardo’s Red Bull (now running the theoretically faster but iffier C-spec Renault engine) ran out of electricity. The loss of power required some nifty work in the garage, but the problem couldn’t be fixed in time and even if it could’ve been, rainfall meant he would’ve had his work cut out to reach Q3. The usually optimistic Aussie, who sounds like he’s recovering from a minor bout of pestilence, was audibly frustrated with the situation. The two Toro Rossos did very well to reach Q3, the late rain meaning others (such as Leclerc and Magnussen) were unable to improve and displace them. Sainz and Stroll also failed to progress.

Hamilton had topped Q1, and Bottas Q2. Who would be fastest in Q3, and what tyres should they slap on? Rain had been falling quite a bit at the end of the previous session but had pretty much stopped by the start of Q3. Everyone who wasn’t in a red car went for the supersoft. Ferrari went for intermediates, Vettel commenting even before the green light came on that it was too dry. He was right. The blunder cost Ferrari some precious time in a session that would end up being very wet.

On the first flying lap, the only one that counted, Hamilton was top and Bottas a couple of tenths down, but still a second ahead of Verstappen, who managed to qualify 3^rd. Both Ferraris, on their delayed flying laps, made errors. Raikkonen’s put him 4^th, Vettel’s a shocking 9^th. Grosjean continued to make his horrendous start to the season an ever fading memory, lining up on the third row just ahead of Hartley, a fantastic result for the Kiwi. Gasly is just behind his team mate, joined on the fourth row by Ocon. Vettel and Perez comprise the fifth row.

Leclerc and Magnussen will be 11^th and 12^th which may be handy for tyre choice. However, it’s worth noting the two Mercedes will be starting on the middle tyre, the soft, whereas the rest of the top 10, assuming the race is dry at the start, will be on the supersoft.

Forecast is for the race to be dry throughout.

Based on the grid, my current betting thoughts are:

Raikkonen, podium

Verstappen, win

Ricciardo, top 6

Raikkonen is 2.5 for a podium. So-so, given he needs to make up a place and, if opportunity arises, Ferrari will likely have him step aside for Vettel.

Verstappen is 8.5 to win. Hmm. Each way, it might be value, though I’m concerned about his engine failing.

Ricciardo is 1.44 for a top 6 finish. I think he’s a dead cert to have the pace, but it requires his car to actually make it. Solo, this doesn’t work, but pairing it with a Not To Be Classified bet might work (though if his car conks out on the final lap, both bets would fail).

Incidentally, Ocon has a three place grid penalty due to insufficiently slowing under red flags.

As always, I perused the markets to see if anything leapt out at me.

Raikkonen, win each way, 15

Perez, winner without big 6 each way, 8.5

Leclerc, winner without big 6 each way, 17

Toro Rosso, most team points, 751

Raikkonen to be winner each way means he has to pass Verstappen, or have the Dutchman’s car fail, and then pass a Mercedes. It’s possible he could slip between them in pit stops. The odds are a bit longer than I’d expect, but if he has Vettel right behind him he’ll be obliged to move over, and has a bad habit of losing places off the start.

Perez starts 9^th, but it’s a bit tricky getting a handle on his pace as he was seemingly put out too late in Q3 so he was a day and a half behind everyone else. He’s 8.5 to make up two places on non-big 6 chaps. It’s quite tempting, but maybe not as much as the bet below.

Leclerc starts 10^th, thanks to Ocon’s penalty, and has choice of tyres. Not only that, his pace, based on Q1, was better than that of everyone (outside the big 6). Each way, the bet pays off to 8^th placed (with zero retirements and assuming Ricciardo passes him), so I think it’s good value.

The Toro Roso to top the points is based on the high chance of a Red Bull deciding to run out of power, and the lower chance (but not 750/1 long chance) of both a Ferrari and Mercedes DNF. If that happens and all else stays the same, Toro Rosso would be likely to top score, weird as that sounds. I’m not advocating this as a main tip, but if you have ten pence or a pound you’re desperate to gamble, stick it on this. And don’t complain if they hit each other on the first lap…

Tip for the race:

Leclerc to win, each way, without the big 6, at 17 (19 with boost).

Early start, so hopefully I’ll wake up in time for it.

Annoyingly, just before I posted this Leclerc’s odds were cut to 13. That’s still value, but obviously not as good.

Morris Dancer