UK: pre-race 2018


As predicted, qualifying was very tight. Annoyingly, the Raikkonen bet was a tenth off winning outright and half a tenth off winning each way. Ah well.

Hartley wasn’t running in qualifying after his substantial crash in practice. He was joined in the departure lounge by Stroll, who beached his car after it snapped on him (which appears to have happened many times for Williams). Sirotkin did similarly but was able to drive away, set a time, but start just a single place ahead of his team mate. Things are not rosy in the good ship Williams. Vandoorne was just ahead of them and, weirdly, so was Sainz. The talented Spaniard had previously never failed to reach Q3 before this season. Just goes to show the engines matter hugely now at Silverstone, with the Ferrari the best and the Renault the weakest.

In Q2 it was slightly surprising that Ericsson was slowest as the Sauber had looked pretty competitive (and remained so in Leclerc’s hands). Gasly, who managed to get out and set times despite the suspension woe (FIA insisted the team replace all his suspension parts on safety grounds) failed to progress further, as did Alonso, with Hulkenberg and Perez top of those eliminated.

The final session of qualifying was just as close as anticipated. Hamilton got a great pole, scarcely half a tenth ahead of Vettel (impressive from the German given his neck problem. I hope he’s ok for the race). Gallingly for the Finn, and those who backed him, he was just half a tenth off his team mate. Bottas failed to get in a second clean lap and ended up 4th, two-tenths off his compatriot.

Verstappen and Ricciardo were next, separated by half a second, but the enormous gap appears fair enough as the Aussie’s DRS wasn’t working.

Magnussen edged Grosjean to get Haas the fourth row, whilst Leclerc qualified 9th, four-tenths ahead of Ocon.

It’s going to be hot again tomorrow (like the last 40 days) so it’s possible that’ll adversely affect components, including the tyres.

Early betting thoughts:
Verstappen podium
Stroll not to be classified
Haas double score

Verstappen is 3.75 for a podium. I believe he’s pretty handy at this circuit, and the engine deficit will matter less in the race as the swanky engine modes can’t be used consistently. That said, it is a power circuit and the Red Bull is down on power.

Stroll is 3 not to be classified. Hmm. He’s only had 2 DNFs to date, out of a possible 9, but the Williams looks like a handful. Maybe value. Maybe not.

Haas are 1.83 to double score. Little on the tight side.

No stand out value, so the tradition of perusing the markets resumed as, unexpectedly, there were 36 waiting for me after England’s victory over Sweden.

After a quick perusal, I saw that the 2.2 on there being under 16 classified finishers (tipped by Mr. B) was still available. Given Hartley’s suspension disintegration, Stroll’s beach holiday, and Vettel’s neck, not to mention the collapse in reliability at the last race, that looks quite good.

Bottas is 17 (I’d back each way, third the odds top 2) to win. Considering how much trouble Hamilton and Vettel have had at races with mistakes in strategy and racing, as well as sheer bad luck, it’s eminently possible one or both could have their races run awry.

Vandoorne is 2.5 to top a group including the two Williams and Hartley. The McLaren has generally been reliable this year and the car is clearly better than the Williams. Things may be closer with the Toro Rosso, though it starts last of all.

Nothing stands out as spectacular value, but the bets I like most are 2.2 on fewer than 16 classified finishers, Bottas at 17 to win each way, and Stroll at 3 not to be classified.

As I sit here pondering the wisest course of action, I feel I should advert any readers to the fact I’ve slept incredibly badly recently and am rather sleepy (and currently sweltering in the not-very-British Never Ending Summer).

Decided against the Stroll bet. Whilst he’s had some problems this weekend he’s only got 2 DNFs this year and at least one of those wasn’t his fault (Hartley crash).

I think the following are both worth following:
Under 15.5 finishers, 2.2
Bottas, win each way, 17

If you vary your stakes I’d put less on the Bottas bet.

Anyway, the race is a little after 2pm tomorrow. Let’s hope it’s a cracker. And a green cracker at that.

Morris Dancer

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