Germany: pre-race 2018
Qualifying was indeed
entertaining, for unexpected reasons.
In the first session it
was not too surprising to see Vandoorne slowest and Stroll barely
faster. More surprising, somewhat, was losing both Toro Rossos. Ocon
also failed to progress, which was not great, considering Perez would
end up in the top 10. However, the real sting came late on. Hamilton
was circulating when suddenly his hydraulics went on strike. He was
instructed to stop (unsure if he disobeyed that or not as radio
messages can be delayed) and tried pushing the car to the pits but it
was too far out. Having reached Q2 and with Ricciardo enduring an
engine penalty, he’ll still start 14th or so, but not a
good day for the Briton.
It’s believed the
problem was caused when he went wide and decided to keep his foot on
the accelerator, going over very bumpy ground and potentially causing
the failure.
With Hamilton out and
Ricciardo not running in Q2, there were only three ‘real’
eliminations: Alonso, Sirotkin, and Ericsson. Alonso and Sirotkin
both qualified a long way ahead of their team mates.
And so into Q3. Would
Verstappen, who had seemed competitive earlier, be able to go
toe-to-toe with Ferrari and Bottas?
No. On the first run,
Vettel was the fastest and Verstappen was about three-quarters of a
second off the pace. On the second, Bottas went faster than Vettel,
only for the German to put in an even faster lap to get pole by
two-tenths, a pretty hefty margin on such a short circuit. Raikkonen
and Verstappen will be on the second row, with Magnussen and Grosjean
claiming the third row for Haas.
Hulkenberg edged out
Sainz to lead the way on row four, with Leclerc finishing half a
tenth ahead of Perez.
Weather, for what it’s
worth given the forecasts have been continually wrong, is deemed
likely to be dry for the race. So it may well tip it down.
Anyway, immediate
betting thoughts are:
Raikkonen/Verstappen
win each way
Hamilton/Ricciardo
podium
Hulkenberg top 6
Hamilton not to be
classified
Verstappen is 6 for the
win, Raikkonen 10. Each way is a third the odds for top two. The Red
Bull looks significantly more competitive on race pace than
qualifying, and would only benefit (in pace terms) if it does rain.
The Ferrari may well be the fastest car, and a 1-2 is possible. It’s
also eminently possible that Vettel and Bottas will get a bit too
close to one another early on and Raikkonen might pick up the pieces.
Not sure if 6/10 represents value. Need to think about it.
Hamilton is 1.33 for a
podium. That tempts me zero percent. Yes, it’s credible, but he has
four fast cars ahead of him and potential for early trouble, starting
surrounded by the midfield. Ricciardo is 5.5, which may be worth
looking at. Safety car timing is likely to help rather than hinder
him (he has nothing to lose) and he can start on whatever tyre he
likes. Plus, early tangles at the front are eminently possible. It’s
not odds on, but is a realistic possibility, especially as Mercedes
has recently had a spot of gremlin bother.
Hulkenberg is 4.33 to
be top 6. I do think this requires one of the top six to fail and for
Hulkenberg to be best of the rest. Haas have recently been
impressive, so this might be tricky. Of course, if we have a smash-up
at the front, he could be second best of the rest and still be top 6.
Hamilton is 8 not to be
classified. I like this quite a lot. Car trouble, off-colour,
surrounded by the midfield, grumpy, chance of rain. Could happen.
Annoyingly, the odds
then changed. I think Ladbrokes might have accidentally put them up
too early, without changing them from pre-qualifying.
Ricciardo became 7.5
for a podium, which is more tempting. Hulkenberg fell to 4 for top 6.
Incidentally, the 2.3
safety car and 2.2 no safety car (Ladbrokes/Betfair respectively) bet
I mentioned elsewhere isn’t counting in the records. But it’s
still a nice spot.
Anyway, once the
markets woke up properly, I perused them for value and so forth. And
thus:
Hartley, not to be
classified, 2.5
Safety car, 2.3
Finishers under 15.5,
2.2
Hartley has a 50% DNF
rate. So, 2.5 looks like value.
I think there’s a
reasonably high chance of a safety car, so it being odds against
seems a little unusual, and tempting.
DNFs and the like
making under 15.5 classified finishers at 2.2 intriguing too. That
requires 5 chaps to fail to be classified. Obviously there’s a bit
of overlap with the idea of a safety car bet.
At the moment, the bets
I like most are Ricciardo podium, Raikkonen each way for the win,
Hamilton to DNF and a safety car to appear. The track’s pretty
narrow so I think a reliability failure is relatively likely to bring
one out, though the VSC could scupper it. There’s also the chance
of a big crash, of course.
Upon meditative
reflection, Raikkonen to win each way at 10 seems the best value to
me.
Anyway, the race
commences at some stupid minutes after 2pm because Liberty decided to
bugger about with the start times of the European leg of the season.
Daft sods. Let’s hope the race is entertaining and profitable.
Morris Dancer
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