Germany: post-race analysis 2018

Well, that had a sting in its tail. The bet came within a place of coming off, rather frustratingly. But that’s this year in general, really.

Off the line, Verstappen got a flyer but Raikkonen defended superbly to retain his position. There was close stuff throughout the field but no collisions. Hamilton quickly started carving his way through the field, whereas Ricciardo took considerably longer (the Aussie started on the medium tyre, Hamilton on the soft).

The two out of position chaps made good progress, so much so that before the first pit stops Hamilton had joined the upper ranks, albeit with a considerably time gap. Raikkonen pitted early and emerged ahead of the Briton. When Vettel and Bottas did likewise perhaps a dozen laps later, Raikkonen was in first place, Vettel second.

We have entered a strange twilight world. A world where Fernando may no longer be faster than you. Whilst Ferrari did swap their cars (which were on different strategies, so it was entirely reasonable) it took them quite a while and some pleading on the radio from Vettel. Immediately the German started to open up a gap, making the delay even more peculiar.

Ricciardo’s car failed him. The Aussie was looking in a good position. He was up to 6^th, his tyres up to temperature, and, unlike everyone else around him, he could afford to wait a long time for the forecast rain to show up. And show up it did, but after his car stopped working. Bad luck for him.

No safety car was needed. Nor was one required when it started to rain, affecting a small portion of the circuit. Nevertheless, the likes of Verstappen, Leclerc and Alonso dove into the pits for intermediate tyres. Hamilton, who had pitted a short time earlier for new ultrasoft tyres, was enjoying the excess of grip and closing sharply on the leading Ferrari duo and Bottas, who was right behind Raikkonen.

The trio of intermediate fellows soon discovered their folly, and returned to the pits for dry tyres. But they were outdone in race strategy errors by Toro Rosso, who, for some reason, put Gasly onto the full wet. The full wet tyre being designed for torrential rain and standing water. On a track that was three-quarters dry and one-quarter damp. Shades of donning scuba gear for a paddling pool. Anyway, that shoved him to the back of the field.

There was perhaps a bit more rain when Vettel’s rear axle locked and he entered a gravel trap, never to emerge. Hard not to feel sympathy upon hearing the German’s heartfelt apology over the radio. A safety car was deployed. Verstappen’s error in going for intermediates was erased as all the top four save Hamilton, who assumed the lead, came in for fresh tyres (the order behind the Briton being Bottas, Raikkonen, Verstappen).

Haas fared poorly in this period, with Hulkenberg, as is so often the case, emerging best of the rest. Further back things were less rosy for his Renault team mate Sainz, who was found guilty of passing under the safety car and handed a 10 second penalty.

The restart saw Bottas challenging Hamilton for the lead. Clearly faster and just barely fended off, the Finn was then immediately ordered to hold station. Quite the change from the team that used to pride itself on letting its drivers fight. Raikkonen briefly looked to challenge Bottas but was unable to do so.

Hulkenberg retained 5^th, just ahead of Grosjean. The two Force Indias, Perez leading Ocon, came next, with Ericsson and Hartley rounding out the top 10. Nice for Sauber, even though they screwed up Leclerc’s strategy, to score with the other car.

Both Williams had to retire. Shame for them. Never seemed likely to trouble the scorers but pace has perhaps improved just a tad. Alonso, compromised by strategy and, well, his car ended up last of the classified finishers, right behind Leclerc.

So. Quite the turn around. From a Ferrari 1-2 to a Mercedes 1-2 in a dozen laps. Whilst there have been a couple of iffy races this year, the season has had more of this type of dramatic twist race than any I can remember. How many races have been determined by strategy calls, weather, safety car timing or a car just failing?

Drivers:

Hamilton 188

Vettel 171

Raikkonen 131

Bottas 122

Hamilton has, I think, his largest lead over Vettel this season. However, we’ve seen double digit leads (for both men) get flipped in a single race, such as has been the topsy-turvy nature of this year. For the battle of the wingmen, or the Finnish fracas, things are even closer. Unlikely either will be able to close up and fight for the title, though.

This was Vettel’s first DNF of the year. Now every driver has had at least one.

Constructors:

Mercedes 310

Ferrari 302

Red Bull 211

Renault 80

Force India 59

Haas 59

McLaren 48

Toro Rosso 20

Sauber 18

Williams 4

Mercedes retake the lead, but it’s going to be close for the Constructors’ title. Further back, Renault are greatly helped by Hulkenberg’s 5^th place, tightening their grip on the same position in the Constructors’ race. Haas and Force India were respectively hindered and helped by the safety car, and find themselves on the same points tally. Suspect Haas will come out on top. Behind them, McLaren were one point off Renault after the Spanish Grand Prix. Now they’re 32 points behind.

And, near the lower end of the table, Sauber shaved a little off the small gap to Toro Rosso. Wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up finishing ahead. Alas, Williams seem rooted to the foot of the table.

The next race is next weekend, at Hungary, after which he have a month off.

Morris Dancer