Hungary: pre-race 2018
Qualifying was
thoroughly wet and soaked with entertainment.
The first session was
soggy enough for the intermediate tyre. Despite looming rain clouds
the track was drying out nicely and all seemed as normal. But then
the backmarkers decided to be brave and shoved on some ultrasoft
tyres (weirdly, Ricciardo put on the soft). Suddenly, midfield
runners were seconds faster than the top chaps, who rushed in to
rectify their mistake. But would rain come before they could exploit
the window of opportunity? And would Ricciardo ever warm up his soft
tyres? No, and yes, respectively. The big losers in Q1 were the two
Force Indias. Leclerc also failed to progress, as did Vandoorne and
last-placed man Sirotkin, who explained that the team believed rain
was coming, so he pushed hard on the first lap, but the track was
actually drying out so others were going faster but by then he’d
taken too much out of the tyres.
Q2 did have another
surprise, as everyone went out on slicks. Except Vettel who went out
on intermediates. A big call. And 100% correct. The German was aware
it was pelting down late on in the track, put in a great time, and
spent the rest of the session doing a crossword. Everyone else
cruised round a dry circuit then came across a small lake before
rushing in for intermediates and hoping they could get a decent lap
before the rain intensified (which it did quite quickly). Raikkonen
was the last chap to change his tyres and it looked like he may’ve
missed his chance, but the Finn put in an impressive lap to make it
through. Less impressive, and more puzzling, Ricciardo was unable to
get through. The Aussie lines up right behind (well, alongside and
back a bit) Alonso, with Hulkenberg, Ericsson, and Stroll, who had a
spin and knocked his front wing off.
The circuit was very
wet but perhaps moderately drying in Q3. Late on, Raikkonen was
fastest, leading the two Mercedes with Vettel unexpectedly off the
pace. However, after the final runs, Hamilton snagged yet another
pole and Bottas made the front row a Mercedes lock-out. Raikkonen
outqualified Vettel for the second row, with Sainz and Gasly
comprising row three, an impressive result for both men. Verstappen
could only manage 7th, just ahead of Hartley (a great day
for Toro Rosso), with Magnussen and Grosjean perhaps a bit slower
compared to Toro Rosso than one might expect.
Given the race pace
expected is for Ferrari to be fastest, Red Bull perhaps second
fastest and Mercedes maybe third, that’s an interesting grid. Also
worth noting rain was not expected for qualifying and it’s very
hard to overtake in Hungary.
Was unable to bet
yesterday evening, so this morning I had a look.
Initial betting
thoughts:
Verstappen podium
Vettel win
Verstappen was summoned
to the stewards for impeding Grosjean but apparently they decided no
penalty was required as the impeding was not deliberate. Intent was
never required in the past for a penalty, and almost no impeding is
deliberate. Inconsistent and inexplicable decision, I think, but the
Dutchman retains 7th on the grid. He’s 3.5 for a podium,
which may be worth considering. The Red Bull is competitive, despite
passing problems I think he’ll be able to get past Sainz and Gasly
fairly easily. There’s also the chance of a frontrunner collision
ahead of him, and/or the top two teams having to sacrifice their rear
gunners to try and benefit their title contenders, allowing
Verstappen to slip through the middle. If it’s dry, Mercedes have
been chewing their tyres up more than their rivals too.
Vettel is just 2.62 for
the race win. Given he starts 4th, that’s too short
(there’s a slightly under 50% chance, historically, of the
pole-sitter winning).
Anyway, perusal of the
morning markets revealed:
Bottas, lead lap 1, 7.5
Verstappen, win
(without Hamilton and Vettel), 6.5
Sirotkin, beat Stroll,
3.25
Vandoorne, beat Alonso,
4.33
Bottas is shorter odds
than either Ferrari to lead the first lap. I think this utterly
misreads the situation. The Finn cannot choose to be slow off the
line, he has to (as per everyone else) go full throttle, as it were.
If Hamilton starts poorly, Bottas is in prime position to get ahead,
which is better for the team than letting a Ferrari get it. Bottas,
from memory, has been starting well this year, Raikkonen has been
mostly slow, and Vettel has been so-so. Could be value.
If you believe Vettel
and Hamilton are nailed on for the podium, then Verstappen to win
(discounting the two previously mentioned chaps) at 6.5 is much
better value than the 3.5 for a straight podium. You can also get an
each way aspect, third the odds for top 2. This is quite interesting,
and well worth considering.
Sirotkin to beat Stroll
is based simply on the fact both men have a reasonable chance of
getting a DNF. Both have had 3/11 so far, and if Stroll gets it
first, Sirotkin wins. Odds maybe a bit too short to tempt.
Vandoorne has 2 DNFs to
Alonso’s 3. The 4.33 on the Belgian to win might be value.
As a sort of threepenny
bet (absolutely does not count in records), but if you want to spend
a tiny sum, then 751 each way on Sainz to win may be worth it for
less than bus fare, just in case it pisses it down and the top dogs
slide off the track. Sainz has a car, and is a driver, who can
outperform probably the rest of the field if the top six are in
trouble. I would advocate only putting on a tiny sum, but thought I’d
flag it up given how wrong the forecasts have been.
However, for proper
tips, I like the following:
Bottas, lead lap 1, 7.5
Verstappen, winner
without Hamilton/Vettel, each way 6.5
Race starts at the
annoying time of a bit after 2pm. Why they couldn’t stick with 1pm
is beyond me. Daft sods.
Morris Dancer
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