Mexico: pre-qualifying 2017

I’ve rambled a bit more than usual about early bets here, so let me know if you think that’s worthwhile or I should, as is normal, just mention them in passing.

Ah, Mexico, where the high altitude alters the aerodynamics and engines in a way that I forget every single year. Unhelpfully, having checked the two previous races, the circuit seems good for Williams and Red Bull, two teams with diametrically opposed design philosophies.

Worth recalling there was a significant earthquake in Mexico only a few weeks ago, so hopefully they’re making good progress rebuilding.

In other, unsurprising, news, Hartley is retaining his Toro Rosso seat and Kvyat’s gone again, as Gasly comes back. At least if Kvyat has gone for good, he had a good last race, nabbing the final point in Austin. It also sounds like Hartley might retain his seat for 2018.

Having read a little, it seems that the high altitude lends itself to massive downforce levels, akin to Monaco/Hungary, despite the long straights. It’s also been rather tasty for Red Bull in the past, although this season it’s been Ferrari that’s dominated at the aforementioned circuits.

Incidentally, thanks to Mr. B on PB who pointed out there’s only one swanky new Renault engine and Verstappen’s getting it.

Early bet considerations [all Ladbrokes]:

Race winner, Vettel 3.5, Verstappen 5, Raikkonen 17 (all each way)

Fastest qualifier, Verstappen 11, Raikkonen 13 (again, each way)

Double podium, Ferrari 3

Double points, Williams 4.5

Free Practice 1 winner, Raikkonen 9 (each way)

So, a surprisingly high eight potential early bets. As can be seen, I’ve focused on Ferrari and Red Bull. Hard to decide between them. Ricciardo’s engine penalty [update: he ended up not having one] and inferior engine makes me less likely to back him, good though he is.

On the qualifying front, the enhanced engine mode of Mercedes/Ferrari will help. That can’t be run throughout the race, however. That makes me inclined to back Raikkonen at 13 each way for the fastest qualifying time (he got pole in Monaco this year and started 2^nd in Hungary).

Decided against backing Williams for double points. Although they’ve done well here in the past, their car isn’t quite as competitive as it could be, and Stroll’s sometimes a little off the pace.

Also decided against the Ferrari double podium bet. It’s perfectly credible but I think Raikkonen to win each way is more value, so if I make that sort of bet it’ll be the latter rather than the former.

There are six chaps vying, on pace, to be top 3 in FP1. Given the Ferrari could well be the tastiest car, that does make Raikkonen at 9 tempting enough to back (each way).

Which leaves the winner market. It vexes me, as credible arguments can be made for each of those chaps (and Hamilton won’t want to give up the win easily). If Vettel does win there is a good chance Raikkonen will be right behind him, and the Finn’s odds to be top 2 exceeds those of the German to win. To my mind, that rules out Vettel on value grounds. Verstappen is intriguing at 5 (longer on Betfair Sportsbook/Exchange, but the Sportsbook each way odds are only a quarter for top 2 so a smaller payout for 2^nd, but larger for 1^st). In the last three races he’s had a win and a 2^nd, and might’ve done very well in Singapore (but we’ll never know for sure). On the other hand, if he qualifies poorly his odds may improve. On balance, I think Verstappen at 5 is the best bet for the winner (each way).

Early bets:

Fastest qualifier, Raikkonen, 13 (each way)

Free practice 1 winner, Raikkonen, 9 (each way)

Winner, Verstappen, 5 (each way)

An interesting side note is that after Ricciardo’s engine DNF in the US it was widely assumed he’d have a penalty. He was 26 on Betfair to win early in the week, 36 mid-week, but fell to 18.5 (21 at the time on Ladbrokes) on Friday when a rumour emerged that he might not take an engine penalty after all. Given Verstappen was around 6 or so, Ricciardo’s odds would seem very long (and eminently hedgeable if he ended up going without a penalty). On the other hand, if he does take one, the odds are actually too short, so it’s a fantastic/foolish sort of bet.

Updated bit: on Saturday morning, Ricciardo’s lay value on Betfair was down to 9. I must admit, I’d backed him at 26 when I forgot about his penalty and took this opportunity to hedge that.

Gasly has penalties for a fifth set of control electronics and perhaps more besides. He also went on to suffer an engine failure in third practice, so that won’t help.

In first practice it was Noah’s ark style, with Bottas nearly half a second ahead of Hamilton, Verstappen and Ricciardo very close together and just a tenth off the Briton, and Vettel a tenth further back. Raikkonen, unhelpfully, was half a second off his team mate. Perez, Alonso, Massa, and Hulkenberg rounded out the top 10.

In second practice, Ricciardo was fastest, a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Verstappen, Vettel, Raikkonen and Bottas followed, with Alonso, Perez, Hulkenberg and Ocon making the top 10.

Third practice suggests that qualifying will be ultra-close. Just four-tenths covers the top six. Verstappen was fastest, ahead of Hamilton and Vettel, with Bottas, Ricciardo and Raikkonen in hot pursuit. Perez, Ocon, Sainz and Hulkenberg were close to one another but half a second off Raikkonen.

Right now it seems very competitive at the sharp end (NB the race is expected to be a one-stopper), and things are looking good for Force India and Renault.

That being so, I’m not inclined to offer a tip on qualifying. It could be a great session.

Morris Dancer