Mexico: pre-race 2017
Gasly didn’t run in
qualifying due to engine issues.
Vandoorne had a 35
place penalty, with a 20 place penalty for Alonso. Gasly might be
miffed, but with Toro Rosso having a Honda engine next year he might
have to get used to this sort of thing.
Obviously Gasly didn’t
escape the first session, and the other four who joined him were the
two Saubers and the two Haas cars (which were slower than the
Saubers). Pretty weak pace from the American team.
In Q2 there was more
woe for Toro Rosso as Hartley’s engine failed. The McLarens didn’t
run due to their mighty penalties and with Hartley also out by
default there were only two ‘proper’ exits. Unfortunately for
Williams, both their cars dropped out here, Massa being the faster.
And so to Q3, which
everybody expected to be very close. And so it proved to be.
Verstappen put in a great lap on his first run, but was unable to
match Vettel’s second attempt. The German starts on pole, with the
Dutchman alongside him. Having been outqualified by two different
cars, Mercedes at least have the second row to themselves, with
Hamilton ahead of Bottas. Raikkonen was close behind, and he has Ocon
alongside him. Ricciardo could manage only 7th, a full
nine-tenths off his team mate. Engine problem? Setup issue? It’s
too big a margin to be normal. Hulkenberg is next, just one slot but
three-tenths ahead of his new team mate Sainz, with Perez 10th
and four-tenths off Ocon. At least some space between the Pink
Panthers reduces the chances of an immediate collision.
An interesting grid.
There was practically nothing between Hamilton and Bottas, but most
other team mates had sizeable gaps in Q3. I expect the Red Bull to be
very good in the race. Surprised Ricciardo qualified so badly given
the pace that’s in the car (Verstappen does have an upgraded
engine, but the margin is enormous just for that). This is
particularly odd given the lap is a short one.
The race is likely to
be a one stop for everyone, with the ultrasoft tyres capable of 35
odd laps. Overtaking’s tricky too.
Longest run to the
first corner of the year (eight hundred and seventy-five yards). So,
screw up the start and you’ll be passed by everyone and his cat.
Probably not good for Raikkonen. Tastier for Alonso.
My initial betting
thoughts were:
Ricciardo, podium
Force India, double
points
Hamilton, win
Ricciardo is 4.6 for a
podium. However, he does start 7th, it’s expected to be
a one stop race and the circuit is apparently very tricky for
overtaking. I do think he’ll make ground anyway, but that much
*might* just be a step too far. Disappointing qualifying, even with
engine disparity, given his team mate is on the front row. If he
starts well, it could be the boost he needs, but there are quite a
few cars between him and a podium. More concerning, I checked the
qualifying times and in every session he was substantially off the
pace, so it wasn’t just bad laps in Q3.
Force India are 1.5 for
double points. That’s tight. And yet, their car is very reliable
and both drivers are quick (Perez’s poor qualifying was a bit of a
surprise). The straight will be the prime area of overtaking, which
also suits the car pretty well. On the other hand, Perez starts 10th.
If they were 6th and 8th it’d be rather more
tempting.
Hamilton is 4.33 for
the win. It’s certainly credible, but the Mercedes tends to be
slower in the race than qualifying. Not long enough to tempt.
Just an aside, but it’s
odd that the 8th and 9th men (the Renaults) are
1001 each to win. Ocon, in 6th, is likewise. Remembering
Azerbaijan, I’m a little tempted to throw down 50p on that.
No F1 specials on the
Ladbrokes exchange again, which is a shame because there were
sometimes interesting markets there.
Anyway, I perused the
markets and saw:
Vandoorne to beat
Alonso, 3.5
First lap leader,
Hamilton, 9 (Bottas is 25)
Bottas, podium, 2.66
The Vandoorne bet is
based on the same lines as the one I raised but didn’t tip last
time out. Namely, Alonso’s car breaks a lot. So Vandoorne will
likely win by default.
The first lap leader
bet is based on the long run to the first corner and the Mercedes’
dominance on top speed. Against it is that Hamilton’s engine has
been hesitating throughout the weekend, and if power cuts out at the
wrong time he will go a long way backwards.
Bottas has been good
all weekend, unlike many of his recent performances, and his car
appears rock solid.
Nothing, frankly, leaps
out at me.
Some extra suggestions,
from Mr. Sandpit, in another place (my thoughts in brackets
afterwards):
Hamilton 1.12 to finish
the race - he’s 17 from 17 so far this season. [Likely to come off
but the very short odds aren’t to my taste]
Vettel to finish the
race LAY 1.25 [Having backed something similar last race, not sure
about this. The gremlins appear to have gone]
Verstappen 3.6 to win
[Sound, especially each way, but an early, pre-weekend tip of mine
was Verstappen at 5 to win so it’s already covered]
Safety car 1.55 -
possibly just about value at that price but looking for 1.66-1.75
[Agree with Mr. Sandpit’s summary]
Lead first lap
Verstappen at 4 and Hamilton at 8. [I was thinking of looking at
this. The long run to the first corner makes it easier to come from
further back so I’d probably look at Hamilton].
An awkward weekend,
then, as I don’t have a particular bet in mind. But, as I offer a
tip on every race and have done since the latter part of 2009, a tip
must be found. I have put tiny sums on Sainz, Ocon and Hulkenberg
each way to win at 1001 (very unlikely but the odds are just
ridiculous and they’re top of the pile if the top six explode) but
as I’m not putting a proper stake on that’s not a tip (not to
mention it’d really bugger up a profit/loss graph if it came off).
To that end:
Hamilton, lap 1 leader,
9 (Betfair Exchange)
Vandoorne to beat Alonso, 3.5 (Ladbrokes)
The astute amongst you
will have noticed the former is also Mr. Sandpit’s suggestion.
Will the McLarens
explode? Will the top six simultaneously fail, giving me the best
betting win since the 2016 Spanish Grand Prix? Will the Force Indias
smash into one another?
We shall find out, from
7pm tonight.
Morris Dancer
Good afternoon Mr Dancer. No idea what to do today. No idea if Hamilton will settle back for the result or push for the win. He's got Schumacher's 91 wins in his long term sights and he won't want to drop a notch unnecessarily ... but he might just carefully put the season to bed. Vettel will want the win badly.
ReplyDeleteMercedes aren't going to push Bottas out front so I'm not keen on that podium bet. I'm going Verstappen for fastest lap at 4/1 and I'll take Alonso and Gasley not to finish.
Just as a reminder - I mentioned on here months ago that I accidentally backed Hamilton to win the championship rather than that individual race by clicking the wrong button. That was when he was comfortably trailing. At the time I cursed the error as dead money. Mwhahahaha!
I might throw a couple more pounds at the race randomly before it starts but almost certainly just following you and/or Mr Sandpit. I've got nothing original to offer this week.
Best of luck!
Verstappen took fastest lap on the 69th of the 71 laps much to the annoyance of his management. And they didn't tell him he lost it on the 70th for fear he'd try to take it back. Cost me a nice payout!
DeleteHa, my sympathies. A tough race to call, but that was a sound bet, even though it didn't come off.
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