Japan: post-race analysis 2017

Pretty terrible result. Slept badly due to mild pestilence, missed the start, had to get up to walk the hound and only caught the end. And the bet was red (Haas were pretty good, Stroll was well out of the points and even before his DNF was never going to score). Humbug and a half.

Before the race began, deja vu struck. The Ferrari starting 2^nd (Vettel this time) had its bodywork off and was being worked on by anxious mechanics. This time, it got going. But would it last?

Off the line, Verstappen passed his team mate, who also lost out to Ocon. Vettel retained 2^nd, but fairly early on his car lost power. A spark plug failure saw the title contender lose half a dozen places before, sadly, he was forced to box and retire. The title contest, it seems, is effectively over.

Ocon fought well but couldn’t keep Ricciardo or Bottas behind him. A safety car period ended and almost immediately Stroll cocked up a corner, losing several places and then having to pit very early, which ultimate buggered any hope of points (although a right tyre failure late on would’ve ended that chance anyway).

At the sharp end, Hamilton looked comfortable against Verstappen for most of the race. But in the dying stages, the Dutchman was flying, right on Hamilton’s tail. Unfortunately, the traffic was really not helpful to Verstappen (especially Massa). It remains to be seen whether he would’ve been able to pass Hamilton or not, but bad traffic cost him the opportunity to find out. Nevertheless, an impressive drive and the Red Bull was very good on pace.

Hulkenberg had stayed out long (most only had a single stop) and pitted for the supersoft, emerging at the end of the Massa, Magnussen, Grosjean, Gasly gaggle. He set about passing them, soon dispatching Gasly, only for his DRS to collapse, ruining the balance of his car and forcing a DNF. Rather sad, as he could’ve reached as high as 8^th but didn’t have the opportunity.

Massa was somewhat caught napping by Magnussen, who barged his way past and was followed by Grosjean. Near the end, the Brazilian (10^th) was vigorously pursued by Alonso, but Massa just managed to retain the final point place.

Ahead, the Force Indias, Ocon leading, were pretty isolated, but grabbed more good points in 6^th and 7^th. Raikkonen ended up 5^th, but was never in position to challenge Bottas.

Must admit to being surprised the Williams was a bit feeble and the Haas so, relatively, good in the race.

Another week, another double podium for Red Bull and reliability woe for Ferrari. Their season, so tightly fought, has been destroyed by gremlins. It’s a bit disheartening after so many great races that a classic season has fizzled out. We could do with Hamilton having a pair of exploding engines, but I doubt that’ll happen.

Drivers:

Hamilton 306

Vettel 247

Bottas 234

In the last three races, Vettel has gained just 12 points. He’s now at risk of losing 2^nd to Bottas (not that that makes much difference). The title is all but Hamilton’s. It would take something astonishing for him to lose now.

Constructors:

Mercedes 540

Ferrari 395

Red Bull 303

Force India 147

Williams 66

Toro Rosso 52

Haas 43

Renault 42

McLaren 23

Sauber 5

Whilst I think the top four likely to finish that way, there’s an off-chance, should the Prancing Horse put in more lame performances, that Red Bull could snatch 2^nd. Further down the grid, it’s tight from 5^th to 8^th. If there’s a race with high attrition (perhaps due to rainfall), that could determine which team finishes where if a midfield driver can score top points.

It’s a tremendous shame a tight title fight has shifted utterly due to reliability failures for Vettel. We’ve been robbed of a great sporting contest. Unless Hamilton encounters horrendous luck, he’ll take the title at a canter.

The next race is the US in a fortnight, with Mexico just a week later (we’ll see if I can remember how thin air affects the aerodynamics and engines, but I wouldn’t bet on it).

Morris Dancer