USA: post-race analysis 2017

The race was thoroughly entertaining with plenty of action throughout, perhaps spoilt only by the surprising decision against Verstappen late on. In terms of weekend bets, it was green, one bet succeeding and the other failing (due to bad luck regarding reliability). All the early tips, pre-weekend, failed, but two of the three did so due to misfortune (Verstappen’s grid penalty and Ricciardo’s DNF).

Congratulations and commiserations to Mr. Sandpit, who correctly tipped No Safety Car at 2.4 and a top 6 finish for Verstappen at 1.75, but failed to back either. Still, it could be worse. Could’ve failed to back his own 70/1 winning tip…

Vandoorne ended up starting last because his five place grid penalty was increased to 30.

Off the line, Vettel got a flying start and passed Hamilton, with Ocon getting past Raikkonen (who, according to commentary, hasn’t made a single place all year from the start, unless you count his short race in Singapore).

Raikkonen soon regained the spot from Ocon, whilst Vettel and Hamilton eased away from Bottas. The Finn was followed very closely by Ricciardo, who was visibly quicker but unable to pass due to the Mercedes’ horsepower. Meanwhile, being bottled up had enabled Raikkonen to gain ground and he was right on Ricciardo’s tail.

Sadly, lap four saw Hulkenberg retire due to a reliability problem. The Renault’s a good midfield car this year but its reliability is a bit weak.

Vettel had been unable to break away from Hamilton in the early stages, and on the sixth lap the Briton passed with ease, relying on vastly more speed on a straight. Good for him, though not as exciting as other passes later in the race would be. Having passed, Hamilton soon proved he was significantly quicker and began pulling away from his rival effortlessly.

Wehrlein retired lap seven, and on the next lap Verstappen had climbed to 7^th, three laps later passing Ocon for 6^th.

Ricciardo had been unable to pass Bottas and was suffering with his tyres, putting him under increasing pressure from Raikkonen. On lap 13 the Aussie pitted for the supersoft (the top chaps had all started on the ultrasoft, except Verstappen who started on the supersoft). A couple of laps later Alonso and Ocon both pitted for the soft tyre, marking an interesting divergence of strategy.

The Aussie was very swift, and there was every prospect of him nabbing Bottas over the pit stop and maybe climbing higher. Until his engine decided not to work any more and he suffered a DNF. A great shame for him, for the race and for the bets, but these things happen. As well as improving power, Renault need to work on their reliability (Hulkenberg, of course, having retired earlier in the race).

On laps 17, 19 and 20, Vettel, Bottas and Hamilton respectively pitted for the soft tyre. Hamilton, who had had a pretty healthy lead, emerged just half a second ahead of Vettel, to his surprise, but his pace soon enabled him to widen the gap to a more comfortable margin once again.

At this stage Verstappen, who had yet to pit, led the race. Raikkonen pitted shortly thereafter, and, once Hamilton passed Verstappen, the Dutchman came in for the soft tyre, emerging in 5^th and 11 seconds behind Raikkonen. On the same lap (25) Alonso suffered another DNF due to the engine going. That’s four in the last six races. A great shame as he’d been running around 7^th and doing so purely on pace.

On lap 29 (just past the halfway point of the 56 lap race), Ocon and Perez were 7^th and 8^th, within a second of one another. Perez nagged on the radio to be let past because Sainz was very close behind, but his request was denied. Ocon was a bit slow because he was bottled up behind the yet-to-pit Massa. The next lap, Massa pitted, changing onto the ultrasoft, and Perez started to drift back from Ocon. The Mexican was two seconds behind his team mate with Sainz just half a second behind him. On lap 34, the Mexican and Spaniard had a fantastic tussle with Sainz eventually pulling off a great move that took multiple corners and will have delighted his new team, gaining him 7^th.

Hamilton was busy with a crossword in 1^st, but a little further back, Raikkonen (4^th) was just half a second off Bottas. Verstappen pitted for the supersoft on lap 38, retaining 5^th due to the massive gap (over 40 seconds) that had arisen between himself and Ocon.

To head off Verstappen, Vettel pitted the next lap and emerged barely ahead of the Dutchman. A canny strategic move from Ferrari. Further down the order, on lap 40, Massa passed Grosjean for 10^th. For all the talk of replacing Massa, he’s not driving badly (although I do see the argument for fresh blood given he’s been racing for such a long time).

On lap 42, Raikkonen passed Bottas for 2^nd. Around this stage Bottas was lapping 2s slower than Vettel and Verstappen. A couple of laps later, and some way down the road, Sainz was right behind Ocon.

Vettel lapped Magnussen and Ericsson on lap 47, following which Ericsson tried to take advantage, colliding with the Dane. The Swede ended up with a 5s time penalty. A couple of laps later, Sainz was still right behind Ocon, who remained ahead with some good defensive driving.

By lap 50, Vettel was within DRS range of Bottas, passing him on the next lap. Readers may not be surprised to learn that the German soon found it relatively easy to pass his team mate. At the same time, Verstappen passed Bottas, who was not having a great race. (The Finn pitted on lap 53 for ultrasofts, retaining 5^th).

On the final lap, Verstappen passed Raikkonen for 3^rd, only for stewards to give the Dutchman a 5s time penalty for exceeding track limits (he had, but so had many others during the entire weekend, without penalty). This shunted him down to 4^th, with Raikkonen regaining 3^rd, to the surprise of Verstappen and consternation of Red Bull.

That sour note was one of the few downsides of a race that was very entertaining from start to finish, with wheel-to-wheel action, much passing, varying strategies, and great racing. It was notable for Verstappen’s phenomenal drive to get heavily into the points, and some impressive work from Ricciardo and Alonso (unrewarded, alas), as well as good driving from Ocon, Sainz and Perez.

Behind the controversial podium of Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen, was Verstappen, Bottas and Ocon. Sainz had a great result in his first race for Renault, then we had Perez, Massa and Kvyat, who managed to get the final point (it sounds like this will be the Russian’s final race for Toro Rosso).

Bottas was again lacklustre. It’s worth noting that the Ferrari decision to pit Vettel was spot on, and rather clever.

Mercedes wrapped up the Constructors’ title this weekend, and although Hamilton isn’t technically the new title-holder himself, it’s only a matter of time. The next race is Mexico, in just a week’s time.

Drivers’:

Hamilton 331

Vettel 265

Bottas 244

Ricciardo 192

Raikkonen 163

Verstappen 123

Despite weak performances lately, Bottas is very close to Vettel. The Red Bull drivers have roughly double the DNFs of the Ferraris, so they’d be rather closer with a more reliable engine. Next year may well see reliability as important as raw power in determining the contenders for the title. If the Renault engine is good enough we might have four teams competing for regular podium finishes and wins.

Constructors’:

Mercedes 575

Ferrari 428

Red Bull 315

Force India 159

Williams 68

Toro Rosso 53

Renault 48

Haas 43

McLaren 23

Sauber 5

Obviously the top position has been claimed and down to 4^th I can’t see the positions shifting. Force India are in an odd sort of No Man’s Land. If they had a cash injection they’ve got the set-up to be a real title challenger, but at the moment they’re just top of the midfield. From Williams to Haas (5^th to 8^th) we could see plenty of moves. My suspicion is that Renault will beat Toro Rosso, but Williams may be too far ahead, with just three races left. McLaren and Sauber seem destined to finish 9^th and 10^th.

Ahead of Mexico, I’ll try to remember to refresh my memory as to the impact of the altitude on the cars, both engine-wise and aerodynamically. Unsure of timings, but qualifying and the race will be around afternoon or evening.

Morris Dancer