Japan: pre-qualifying 2017
Because of the early
starts of this race (7am for qualifying tomorrow, 6am for the race on
Sunday), the first two articles (including this one) will be up
earlier than usual, but the post-race ramble might be up after the
highlights (I may listen to the race on the radio then catch
highlights later).
There was an odd
collision between Vettel and Stroll after the Malaysian Grand Prix
ended, which caused quite a bit of damage to the German’s car.
Fortunately, his gearbox has been given the green light to continue.
Speaking of crashes,
Sainz had a significant one in first practice. He’s fine, but has
accumulated so many penalties he’ll start either from the back of
the grid or the summit of Mount Fuji.
In first practice,
Vettel was two-tenths up on Hamilton, who was a similar margin ahead
of Ricciardo. Raikkonen, Bottas and Verstappen followed (so, two sets
of Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull), with Ocon, Hulkenberg, Grosjean
and Vandoorne rounding out the top 10.
Second practice was
very wet, with only five drivers setting a time. Nevertheless, those
five were: Hamilton, Ocon, Perez, Massa and Stroll.
I always find circuits
like Spa, Suzuka and Silverstone trickier to guess at than more
extreme circuits (Monaco, Monza etc). It does look like it’s going
to be tight, although the weather forecast has improved a little and
now indicates it’ll be dry for both qualifying and the race.
Raikkonen to ‘win’
qualifying each way may be worth a look (the last two years he’s
been very close to Vettel, with one better performance and one
worse).
Also, last three races
have had really low attrition rates, just 2, 3 and 0, so it may be
worth looking at a high number of classified finishers (although the
odds won’t be great and reliability generally this year has been a
little poor). There is 2.5 for over 16.5 finishers on Betfair
Sportsbook, but that means just four DNS/DNFs would lead to failure.
Bit tight.
There’s an
interesting special on the Ladbrokes Exchange. All Mercedes-powered
cars to finish in the points (Mercedes, Force India, Williams) at 17.
Williams occasionally has reliability failures, the other teams are
very solid. These odds look excessive to me. They’ll be helped by
Sainz’s penalty.
Raikkonen is 13 to
‘win’ qualifying. Each way, (third the odds for top 2), that’s
pretty good. If the Ferrari’s fastest, he has a decent shot at pole
itself. If the Ferrari is second fastest, he could still nab 2nd.
As with the above bet, I don’t think that’s odds on but the odds
are too long.
So, oddly, two long
odds tips in a qualifying article (albeit one for the race itself).
Raikkonen to ‘win’
qualifying, each way, 13, Ladbrokes
Mercedes-powered cars
to all score points, 17, Ladbrokes Exchange (under specials)
The pre-race article
will be up tomorrow morning, but the post-race analysis might be
later than usual as I’m probably going to listen to it on the radio
then catch the highlights, which I think start at the oddly late hour
of 3pm (nine hours after the race begins).
Morris Dancer
I'll follow you in for half a stake on the Mercedes power points bet. Not a lot of obvious value around given the weather, although it should be dry on Sunday.
ReplyDeleteSandpit.