UK: pre-race 2022
After dry practice, the qualifying was wet and every session saw improvements throughout as displaced water exceeded rainfall and everyone got quicker as time wore on. The race is expected to be dry.
The first session was not a happy time for Aston Martin which saw both chaps eliminated. Unusually, Albon was the Williams departing at this stage while Latifi (perhaps still celebrating Canada Day) escaped for the first time this season. Both Haas cars also failed to progress.
In the second session we waved goodbye to both AlphaTauris and Bottas, outqualified again by the increasingly impressive Zhou Guanyu. Ricciardo could only manage 14th and Ocon 15th while their team mates made it to Q3.
Verstappen looked nailed on for pole… and yet it was not to be. Sainz finally got his first ever pole, less than a tenth ahead of the Dutchman. Leclerc and Perez line up on row two.
Mercedes had threatened to spoil the party but at the
critical moment they weren’t quite there. Row three is Hamilton and Norris,
while Alonso and Russell form up behind. Zhou Guanyu and Latifi round out the
top 10.
The conditions make it difficult to assess just how much closer the Mercedes might be to the sharp end, and it’s worth noting they did not break into the top four despite being among the last cars across the line (and thus in the best conditions). My own feeling remains as my forecast was: the gap will remain, perhaps narrowed but still there. While Mercedes are best of the rest they are some way off the top two.
Yesterday, the race was forecast to be dry and today and the same was true when I checked this morning. When it comes to penalties, there don’t appear to be any (for those wondering, I check the official starting grid on the F1 website which usually lists them at the bottom of the page).
Early betting thoughts:
Perez podium/win
Russell top 6
In race trim, in the dry, the Red Bull is looking like the fastest car, and Perez has been driving very well this year. Reliability is a concern but one that cuts both ways as the Ferrari hasn’t exactly been bulletproof (and his team mate having a DNF would also probably help this bet). The Mexican’s podium odds are 3 with Ladbrokes. Which seems surprisingly good to me. To win, he’s 17 each way, with Ladbrokes, or 24 at Betfair but that is not each way. I think the each way win bet is probably better value than the longer odds win-only one, but both of these are pretty appealing to me.
Russell starts in 8th, and ahead of him are Norris and Alonso. I expect him to be faster than both in the dry, and there’s every chance at least one of the Red Bulls/Ferraris will explode, so him being top 6 should be pretty short. He’s 1.44 to be top 6… which might still be value. Problem with short odds betting is that the return is obviously dinky and he can still be hit by other cars. Hmm.
So, shockingly, a few bets I like the look of. Nevertheless, it’s time to browse the full markets and see what leaps out at me.
Not to be classified - Verstappen, 6; Perez, 5.5; Leclerc, 5;
Sainz, 4.5
Perez beat Sainz, 2.9
While the focus has been on Ferrari due to repeated recent incidents that have dramatically damaged Leclerc’s title aspirations it’s worth noting the Red Bull has not been gremlin-free. Just last race, Perez’s engine decided to go on strike. Splitting a stake between a four-way not classified bet is not a bad idea, as only one leg needs to come off to be green (NB not classified is not the same as a DNF. I think the cut-off is about 95% into a race, so if you smash into a wall on the penultimate lap you still count as being classified).
Sainz starts on pole and Perez in 4th. However,
the Mexican’s been driving very well this year and on recent form the Red Bull
looks faster in the dry (in racing conditions, the Ferrari still being very
good for qualifying). On pace, I would expect Perez to have a good shot of
finishing ahead of Sainz. DNF woe could affect this bet either way. Incidentally,
Perez is 3 to finish on the podium, advancing a single place, and 2.9 to beat
Sainz, so you can take your pick as to the value there (which may be contingent
on how optimistic you are regarding Mercedes in the dry). In addition, if you
do think Red Bull are going to have the whip hand on race pace then Perez each
way for the win, boosted, is probably the best bet going.
So, a few tempting propositions.
I’ve backed Perez to win each way on Ladbrokes at 19 (with boost, third the odds top 2) and set up a hedge on Betfair at 3 to cover him getting close but either DNFing or getting unlucky in another way (bad safety car timing perhaps).
In the last four races only one (Monaco) has not had a top driver fail to be classified. Not the most heroic of bets but I’ve split a stake evenly on the top four chaps (Ferrari/Red Bull drivers) to fail to be classified. (I think it’s an average of 2-3 DNFs per driver in 9 races to date).
So, two tips (one hedged). Let’s hope the race is
entertaining and profitable. It starts at 3pm.
Morris Dancer
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