France: pre-race 2022
An intriguing qualifying session. Not only is Sainz on the back row due to changing bits, so is Magnussen, and both are looking rather fast (as was Schumacher who got a lap time eliminated for narrowly exceeding track limits, which caused him to be eliminated).
In Q1 Latifi was slowest, and we also said goodbye to Gasly, Stroll, Zhou Guanyu, and Schumacher, although everyone does get bumped up two places due to the Sainz-Magnussen penalties.
The competitiveness of the lap times was highlighted by every driver ousted in Q2 coming from a different team. Ricciardo was fastest of those eliminated, ahead of Ocon, Bottas, Vettel and Albon (NB Williams has an update package that seems to be working pretty well).
So far, Ferrari had looked probably fast. Annoyingly for them, Sainz was looking the quicker of the pair, but come Q3 he helped Leclerc out with a tow on the straights. Leclerc duly got pole, three-tenths ahead of Verstappen. Perez leads the second row alongside Hamilton.
Row three is British territory, Norris splitting the Mercedes and starting right ahead of Russell. Behind them we have Alonso and Tsunoda, with Ricciardo and Ocon promoted due to Magnussen and Sainz being sent to the back of the grid.
So, the Ferrari is (probably) a touch faster. But may also chew its tyres more. Perez had seemed off the pace but closed the gap to his illustrious team mate markedly in qualifying, just a tenth and a half off. Sainz is also not out of it, though obviously his starting position is not ideal, and reliability could affect things dramatically.
It appears the Sainz-Magnussen back row is the only thing on the penalties front. In terms of weather, expect things to be dry and sunny with sod all chance of rain.
Early betting thoughts:
Sainz, podium
Sainz, top 6
Magnussen/Schumacher, points
Perez, win
Sainz starts from the back. But he has the best or second best car, has been driving faster than his team mate, and the flipside of the new bits (which have consigned him to the back row) is that they should provide greater performance. A podium finish or top 6 result are far from impossible. For a podium, Sainz is 4.33, and 1.57 to finish top 6. The top 6 does not appeal as reliability woe (even with new parts) and the possibility of getting crashed into make me wary of such short odds. The podium is perhaps on the short side.
The Haas has been looking fast and if Schumacher had not been a tiny bit over the line he would be much further up the order. As it is, he starts 17th, with Magnussen 20th on the grid. Schumacher is 3.25 for points, Magnussen is 3.5. I find these quite appealing odds given the pace, although it’s a far margin to make up.
Perez was less than two-tenths off Verstappen in qualifying
and starts 3rd. It may be that the Red Bull is easier on its tyres
than the Ferrari, that remains to be seen. He’s 11 to win (each way, third the
odds top 2). Yes, I keep going back to this and Sainz for the same but the odds
are consistently too long given poor reliability at the front and the potential
for safety cars shaking things up. So far, the most interesting bet, even
though it’s one I’ve backed before repeatedly.
And so, as we contemplate the end of the Seleukid Empire, it becomes appropriate to browse the market and see if anything else leaps out.
Magnussen win group 4 (Stroll, Zhou Guanyu, Latifi), 2.5
Schumacher win group 3 (Gasly, Vettel, Albon), 5
Norris win group 1 (Russell, Sainz, Alonso), 7
Magnussen made it into the top 10, notionally, until his penalty for new parts sent him right to the back. He’s substantially faster than everyone else in the group, although they all start ahead of him. Assuming the regulations make passing more possible, and his car does not explode, this really should come off pretty easily. The Schumacher bet is highly similar, although his drivers may put up a bigger fight. But he should’ve been at least with them if not ahead on the grid on pace.
Norris drive very well to split the Mercedes, and the McLaren has been upgraded. The question is whether or not he can match them in the race. In addition, he’s got Alonso and Sainz as competition. I think, on balance, the odds may be too short for this given the quality of the cars and drivers he’s up against.
So a few interesting bets based on Perez and the Haas chaps.
I’ve got to back Perez each way for the win (third the odds top 2) at 12 with boost. It’s too long. Again.
I’ve also decided to back both Haas chaps to win their groups, splitting a stake so 75% is on Magnussen and 25% on Schumacher for a roughly even profit margin.
Race start is 2pm.
Morris Dancer
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