Austria: pre-race 2022

 

The start of the nonsense race was weird. Alonso had a problem and had to be wheeled back into the pit (he suffered a DNS in the end). It seemed an extra formation lap had been averted, but then Zhou Guanyu’s engine died on him. This was revived but a second formation lap and a pit lane start was necessary for the Chinese driver. 

When we did get going Verstappen had to fend off Sainz, who made a great getaway to get past Leclerc. The two tussled a bit but when Sainz locked up the order of the top three was settled, with the Spaniard last. 

Further down the order, Gasly and Hamilton had made contact putting them both further back (especially the Frenchman) while Perez had made up a lot of ground. The Mexican got stuck for a while behind the two swift (and formation flying) Haas cars but eventually pulled off a splendid overtake to get Schumacher then Magnussen, before passing a slightly lonely Ocon (although he was unable to get close to Russell, also very much running by himself).

Hamilton struggled even more to get past the Haas cars, eventually succeeding when Schumacher lost DRS to Magnussen.

Out of the points, Vettel had made up good ground when Albon (already given a 5s penalty for forcing Norris wide) tagged him and sent the Aston Martin into the gravel. Vettel managed to escape, but was down to last and ended up having to retire. A further penalty may be coming Albon’s way.

Also, remember Bottas is starting at the back due to new parts.

Sainz had a terrific start and seemed as fast as Leclerc. The DRS is of use but passing a car that has it is tricky, as both Perez and Hamilton found versus the speedy Haas cars. Speaking of which, the Haas was running very nicely indeed.

The forecast is for it to be warm and dry, and it appears Bottas’ penalty is the only one.

 

Early betting thoughts:

Perez, podium
Hamilton, podium
Schumacher, points
Alonso, points

 

Perez is evens for a podium. Hmm. He has a very good record but does starting 5^th on the grid and the Ferraris were able to more or less keep pace with Verstappen in the sprint.

Hamilton is 4 for a podium. He did seem faster than Russell but starts down in 8^th and has his team mate and the top four ahead of him. And it’s possible the Mercedes is now more of a handful (though it was ok in the sprint). 

Schumacher had a tasty and competent sprint performance, fending off both Perez and Hamilton for a long time before finally succumbing to the obviously faster cars. For points, he’s 2.1, starting 9^th, which is a little low, and the Haas is not always the most reliable of cars.

Alonso’s DNS meant we never saw his race pace but Ocon was solidly, if not spectacularly, in the points throughout the pretend race. But the Spaniard’s only 2.75 for points which is a bit mean given he starts 19^th, and as Schumacher showed, overtaking even with multiple DRS zones can be tricky.

So, nothing stand out fantastic. Following the example of Seleucus Nicator, I then perused the full markets to see what there was.

Sainz/Perez, each way win at 11

Number of classified cars Over 16.5 and more than 2.5 leaders in Grand Prix, 3.25 (Price Boost)

Sainz lead lap 1, at 13

Sainz and Perez start 3^rd and 5^th, and both made great starts last time out (I wonder if the odd side of the track is handier than the even). Sainz could’ve been in the lead but overcooked things and had to settle for where he started, and Perez made up almost all the ground he’d lost due to his penalty from qualifying. I thought the Mexican might struggle more with understeer but he seemed very assured, particularly with a fantastic overtake versus Schumacher (who still had DRS from Magnussen, unlike Hamilton’s overtake which only occurred when the German had lost it, indicated an advantage for Red Bull on pace). The potential reliability woe that either of the top two teams could face makes this tricky, and I’m a bit wary of just settling into a rut of backing the second driver of Ferrari/Red Bull… but their odds have consistently been longer than makes sense. Perez especially seems worthy of consideration.

Retirements are usually not too high, but reliability has been iffier than usual this year. Multiple leaders could occur off the line or just through pit stops. Bit of a so-so bet, the classified number might make things less likely given both Zhou Guanyu and Alonso had problems yesterday.

Sainz came close to leading the first lap yesterday and will try the same again. Verstappen has to focus on Leclerc given the Monegasque is closer both on-track and in the title fight. 13 (13.5 on Betfair) is reasonable for someone starting where Sainz does.

 

I’ve decided to back, with one stake split evenly, Sainz and Perez to win at 12 (with boost, third the odds top 2). Sainz has been performing well lately and Perez has all season. At some point this will fail but given how racy the Spaniard was in the sprint and the speed of the Mexican likewise, if woe befalls Leclerc/Verstappen, a safety car emerges, or even just on pace, this could come off.

Yep, not original. But nothing else seemed the same value to me.

 

Race start is 2pm UK time. There will probably be a post-race ramble.

Morris Dancer