France: post-race analysis
France has typically provided boring races and with the new regulations and this year was much the same, with a few moments of interest and some bad luck for my bets, alas.
Off the line the top two held their places and Perez started badly, but managed to only lose one spot to Hamilton. That still defined his race.
Sainz was a rare hard starter and made slower progress than Magnussen, with both Haas cars enjoying flying starts. However, both the Dane and Schumacher pitted early for a planned two stop strategy. This was utterly kiboshed when Leclerc made an error and crashed out from the lead, a few seconds ahead of title rival Verstappen.
The Dutchman was a mile ahead of Hamilton, and despite running very close for a few laps Perez had not been able to pass (this French circuit was the worst of its type for passing under new regulations, and many drivers got held up this way).
Cue the safety car, which buggered Haas’ strategy but was very handy for pretty much everyone else. Sainz swapped hard for medium, most others going the other way. The Ferrari driver was also hampered by a clear unsafe release which earned him a 5s penalty.
At the front, Verstappen checked out and cruised to victory. Hamilton was in a safe but boring trundle to 2nd place. Perez did not have a great day and was unable to make an impact. Sainz, meanwhile, carved his way through the field and seemed destined to get perhaps 2nd on the road and maybe the last podium spot after the penalty, having passed Russell and Perez. Yet his team pitted him, presumably fearing his medium tyres would not last. This plunged him down the order and though he was assisted by a brief, late, VSC (lap 49/53) when Zhou Guanyu had yet more reliability woe, he was only able to end up in fifth.
Meanwhile, Russell had been a smart cookie (or Perez and Red Bull had fallen asleep) by going very slowly and then giving himself enough space to speed up as the VSC ended. He caught the Mexican napping to nab 3rd for himself. Perez fought back but could not reclaim it. An unusually lacklustre weekend from him but I suspect if he could’ve retained his starting position off the line it would’ve been a 1-2 for Red Bull. It’s possible he would’ve lost the spot but I suspect not as passing was very hard at this tedious circuit.
Good performance by Mercedes. Frustration for Ferrari (again). And perfect for Verstappen, whose title rival crashed out, and who scooped the lion’s share of the points.
It was also good for Alpine and McLaren. Alonso and Ocon were 6th and 8th respectively, with Norris and Ricciardo 7th and 9th. Stroll got the final point, barely fending off Vettel at the end.
So, I feel a little bit irked, but that’s the way the cookie
crumbles. I’d significantly underestimated the difficulty of passing, which
played into both bets, and the Perez one may have failed anyway. To make
matters worse, the Haas strategy combined with the safety car’s timing made
that almost certain to fail.
We’re off to Hungary, another circuit typically very
difficult for overtaking, next week.
Morris Dancer
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