Hungary: pre-race 2022

 

Well, I’m glad I didn’t bet because the pole-sitter wasn’t on my radar at all and most other things I had vague notions of also didn’t happen. Nicely set up grid for tomorrow. 

Vettel worked with his mechanics to mend his Aston Martin ahead of qualifying but he narrowly missed out and joined the AlphaTauri and Williams drivers departing at this stage.

Q2 had something of a shock as Perez simply wasn’t fast enough (he alleges blocking, not seen footage either way so I don’t know if that’s the case or not). Zhou Guanyu also failed to progress, as did Stroll and both Haas drivers. 

At this stage both Alonso and Norris had shown some tasty pace but the likelihood seemed Ferrari would get it. After the first runs in Q3 Sainz was top dog, two places ahead of his team mate, with Russell second to the Spaniard and two places ahead of Hamilton. The Ferraris seemed set fair for 1-2 after Leclerc improved his time and Verstappen’s Red Bull suffered a power failure, condemning him to 7th. Then, from nowhere, Russell pulled out a great lap to snatch his first ever pole position.

So, the top two rows are Russell and Sainz, Leclerc and Norris (who put in a good lap late on). Row three is Alpine territory, Ocon ahead of Alonso, with old team mates Hamilton and Bottas on row four. Ricciardo and Verstappen complete the top 10. 

It’s nigh on certain to be dry for the race, and there do not appear to be any grid penalties.


Early betting thoughts:
Alonso podium
Norris podium
Russell win

Alonso is 9 for a podium, and starts 6th on the grid, one place behind his team mate. He’s excellent wheel-to-wheel, and great at defending, plus he often has fantastic first laps. However, this does assume Ferrari woe, whether error, reliability, or the pit wall hamstringing their drivers. Nevertheless, 9 is longer than I anticipated and you can get 13 on Betfair.

Norris, meanwhile, starts on the second row and has odds of 3.25 (or 4.3 with an exchange). He was a couple of tenths off Leclerc but the McLaren has been looking quick all weekend (to an unusual extent). This is also pretty tempting. 

The Sakhir 2020 Grand Prix provides a useful window into Russell’s capability at the sharp end, and I expect him to perform well. The Mercedes has also been looking good, and his lap was astonishingly fast. While one might expect the Ferraris to be better on race pace passing here has been hard and it’s uncertain how much the new regulations will help with that (they appear to have made a good difference at most places, but not last time out in France). Russell can be backed at 4.5 for the win each way with Ladbrokes, or at 5.2 on Betfair/Smarkets on a back and hedge basis. Again, this is something that I like the look of.

 

So, weirdly, three bets with odds better than I was expecting. Nevertheless the principles of Saint Ignatius are clear and, accordingly, I checked the markets for anything else that popped up.

Lay Russell lead lap 1, at 1.6

British 1,2,3, at 15

Laying Russell can work either solo or as a hedge to backing him to win, though I think the latter makes more sense. If he gets away in the lead he’ll keep it for much of the race. The Mercedes has been very good in terms of reliability, Russell’s only DNF was due to accidental reasons in the UK and he might’ve been able to continue had he not left the car to check on Zhou.

I don’t think a British podium is on but it’s a nice thought. 15, if you have a little free bet.

 

Last time out both bets failed to come off but I’ve decided to back a pair again. Russell for the win at 5.2, hedged at evens, and Norris for a podium at 4.3, hedged at 1.6 (those are with Smarkets). Not only are both quick and capable drivers, their primary opposition (Ferrari) have made numerous errors and suffered reliability failings recently. The Red Bull is not as competitive here as it might have been, and while Verstappen’s a great driver his recent power loss and starting grid position do not bode well. Passing difficulty and dry conditions likely mean teams will opt for a minimal number of pit stops which may hamper his progress.

 

Race start is at 2pm.

Morris Dancer

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