Qatar: pre-race 2021

Maybe it’s a good thing there wasn’t a Bottas each way market given he ended up where he did.

In Q1 we had pretty much the chaps you’d expect departing (Mazepin being over 2s slower than next-slowest driver Schumacher). Both Alfa Romeos and Latifi also failed to progress.

Q2 was interesting. Gasly, who had cruised through Q1 on the medium tyres, shifted to the softs (all the Aston Martin, AlphaTauri, and Alpine drivers did likewise). Initially, the Ferraris and McLarens were on the medium but some at least were compelled to put on the softs for their second runs, as did Perez. However, this was not enough to get Perez out, as he qualified 11^th, behind Sainz (who might have set his fastest time on the medium, not sure). Bit of a shock and really not what Red Bull need. Excepting Russell, 15^th, every driver eliminated had their team mate make it to Q3, with Stroll, Leclerc (also very surprisingly out), and Ricciardo failing to progress.

Q3 had both Mercedes, and both Alpines/AlphaTauris in it, which is a little surprising. Hamilton had looked dominant throughout qualifying and was not challenged during Q3, taking a pretty effortless pole half a second ahead of his title rival. Verstappen was two-tenths ahead of Bottas (3^rd) but that might be worse for the Dutchman given the lack of a slipstream.

Gasly, who might well not have surpassed Norris as the best midfield driver of the year, got a fantastic 4^th (he had a puncture late on which saw some strange yellow flag hokey-cokey), with Alonso and Norris making a very spicy third row. Sainz and Tsunoda are behind them, the Spaniard perhaps surprisingly behind his British BFF, while Ocon and Vettel comprise row five.

At this stage, Hamilton looks almost nailed on for the win. Verstappen, Sainz, and Bottas have all been summoned for failing to slow down during yellow flags (viewers will recall yellow flags being repeatedly waved and withdrawn in the third sector for Gasly’s puncture). Also Leclerc’s chassis has a crack in it, but replacement within the standard time would permit him to start where he qualified.

Early betting thoughts:
Mercedes double podium
AlphaTauri double score
High non-classified rate

Mercedes are just 1.5 or the double podium finish. Verstappen may be likelier to get a penalty than Bottas but even if he does he might end up ahead of the Finn and I’m not a fan of such short odds.

AlphaTauri were looking strong and confident in qualifying.2.25 for a double points finish. But the track’s kerbs may prove a car-killer… again, short odds.

Under 16.5 finishers is at 2.75, which is the most appealing bet so far, for me. Downside is that overtaking is forecast to be difficult, upside is that increases the chance for lap 1 destruction, and, as mentioned, the kerbs look rough.

 

So, nothing standing out as fantastic (certainly nothing up there with Hamilton to win at 4 or so). Time to peruse the markets:

Alonso, winner without the big 4, 5.5

Alonso, podium, 11

Gasly, lead lap one, 19
Alonso, lead lap one, 21

Alonso was only a few hundredths off Gasly’s best-of-the-rest pace, and the Spaniard, despite soon to be the elder statesman of the sport, remains one of it not the best wheel-to-wheel racer out there. He stands a good shot of getting ahead at the start and during the first lap, and maintaining his place in front of anyone who can overtake. I think 5.5 for him to be best of the rest is surprisingly generous given he starts 5^th and 3/5 of those who qualified ahead of him are in top tier cars.

The podium bet is based on a combination of Alonso’s starting position and the potential for Verstappen/Bottas to get penalties. It won’t be known probably until shortly before the race whether that will happen, so it’s one of those where it’s either fantastic value, or something to be totally avoided. (Good for a free bet, if you have one to spend).

The same applies to both the lead lap 1 bets (these are on the Betfair exchange). If they start 2^nd and 3^rd then 19 and 21 for Gasly and Alonso to lead offers great value. If they’re 4^th and 5^th it’s not impossible but the odds reflect reality. Again, good for a free bet.

The yellow flag situation was very odd. It was at least twice and maybe thrice that they emerged and vanished. I do think Verstappen stands a strong chance of a penalty, and if he gets one it’d be contentious at least if Bottas and Sainz did not. But the authorities are not necessarily predictable…

Therefore I’m tipping Alonso to be the winner without the big 4 at 5.5 (5.75 with boost). However, if you do have free bets (or like adding in a tiny one here or there) the others I mentioned are well worth considering.

 

The race starts at 2pm UK time.

Morris Dancer