Mexico: pre-race 2021

Well, if you had a free bet then Bottas for pole would’ve come off nicely. Didn’t back that myself but did have an earlier dinky bet on him winning (23) which I shall likely hedge. Sainz was ahead of Leclerc but it was Gasly who was best of the rest (the Frenchman’s been one of the most impressive drivers all year).

Bucketload of red flags this year, mostly in qualifying, and we got another one in the first session before most people had a time on the board. Stroll had a somewhat rubbish crash, just going a bit wide, losing grip, then introducing his car to the barriers. It seemed to take an excessively long time for the session to restart, but eventually it did. Joining the Canadian (who had a back of the grid penalty anyway and may now start from the pitlane if his chassis needs changing) were the two Haas cars, of course, plus Latifi and, weirdly, Alonso. The Spaniard had an odd failure to get things together, compounded by his team mate (also going to the back of the grid) just nudging him into the exclusion zone. Pretty poor for Alpine.

Raikkonen had one of his best qualifying sessions, manging not only to escape Q1 but climbing to 12th, just behind Vettel. He was faster than Russell too, who is subject to a 5 place grid penalty for a gearbox change, with Giovinazzi and Ocon the slowest chaps excluded. At this stage, it seemed Verstappen was likely to get pole with the places behind up for grabs.

Q3 proved it was not so. Perhaps relieved of the burden of uncertainty, or perhaps simply fuelled with the famously powerful porridge of Mexico, Bottas put in a cracking lap to beat the field. On the first run Verstappen was too far back from Perez to benefit from a tow and perhaps too close on the second (compromising in the corners, and Tsunoda didn't help). Either way, there was a front row lockout but it belonged, surprisingly, to the Mercedes, with Verstappen right behind Hamilton. Perez did end up 4^th. The Red Bull looked better on the medium tyres (almost everyone, excepting Tsunoda, in the top 10 qualified on those) but the softs used in Q3 favoured Mercedes. In addition, there’s some weirdness going on with the Red Bull rear wings, with at least one of them literally having tape slapped onto it, which isn’t exactly the high-tech solution one might expect from F1. If that fails during the race…

Anyway, best of the rest was the talented Mister Gasly, just ahead of Sainz on the third row. The resurgence of Ricciardo continues, and he leads Leclerc on row four. Tsunoda and Norris were notionally 9^th and 10^th but really there to help their team mates, both heading for the back of the grid due to engine penalties.

Early betting thoughts:

Perez podium

Verstappen win

Gasly top 6
Vettel points

The Red Bull looked tasty on the medium tyres, which does make me think they have scope to do well (and, recently, the pole-sitter has had difficulty even getting on the podium). The rear wing wonkiness is concerning, though. Perez is 2.4 for the podium. That’s ok. But not outstanding.

Similar thoughts go for Verstappen winning but he’s joint favourite at 2.25, and given the potential for immediate woe (single stop and probable difficulty passing make daring moves at the start a likely occurrence) it’s a bit short.

Gasly is just 1.5 for top 6. He’s got a great chance but there’s always a chance of woe and I’m not a fan of such a short odds bet.

Vettel qualified outside the top 10 but actually starts 9^th, and with free tyre choice. That’s not bad at all. His Q2 pace was some way behind the top 10, though. At 1.57 for points the odds are so short I’d perhaps be more inclined to bet the other way.

So, nothing fantastic. And so, I browsed the markets for something more appealing.

Hamilton and Verstappen touch during the race, 2.5
Perez, win (each way), 17
1 or 2 cars not to be classified, Haas, 2.75
Lay Bottas lead lap 1, 2.5 (Betfair)

A special that caught my eye was out title protagonists colliding (NB collision defined as being any touch). Reasonably high chance of this if they end up close together off the line, but later in the race it’s much less likely. Tempted by this, and it’d be entertaining.

Perez starts down in 4^th but has been performing fairly well so far. And his car looks far better on the medium tyres. There’s just a single stop, however, which reduces the potential for pit stop cunning. However, 17 is fairly long for something that (each way) is green if he’s top 2. And if Hamilton/Verstappen take one another out, it’s a near certainty. Worth considering.

There’s a new Ladbrokes market on a team having any car, or both, not being classified. Quite interested in the Haas odds, given both pace and reliability, and Mazepin.

Hamilton and Verstappen both know there’s a huge opportunity off the line. Against that, Bottas will want a win and doesn’t need to worry about blowing a title challenge. I do think there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be passed, though. In 2018, Ricciardo lost the lead, and Vettel did likewise in 2017.

Frankly, not taken with any of the bets above. I think the ones that appeal most are Haas to have one or two non-classified results, laying Bottas to lead lap 1, and Hamilton-Verstappen to make contact. The last is most fun but it may well be an off the line or not at all event.

I’ve decided to back the Haas bet (2.75 on one or both chaps being not classified). They start in the midfield due to the numerous penalties of others, and both reliability and Mazepin being Mazepin mean there’s a reasonable chance. Plus the last three races here have had 5,4, and 2 DNFs.

The race starts at the slightly irksome time of 7pm (UK). As before, there probably won’t be a post-race ramble.

Morris Dancer