Brazil: pre-race 2021

Sprint races as a concept remain the most tedious nonsense, although Hamilton being sent to the back of the grid following disqualification for a technical infringement related to his rear wing did mean there was a lot of passing at this one.

Including off the line, when Verstappen’s second phase was so poor he immediately lose the lead to Bottas and shortly thereafter lost second to Sainz. He did pass the Spaniard but, although he spent a fair few laps just behind Bottas (and the Finn was on soft tyres to the Dutchman’s medium) that order remain unchanged. Perez was just behind Sainz for the whole race but unable to effect a pass. Good for the Spaniard but not great for the Mexican.

Hamilton scythed through the field, passing the backmarkers and lower midfield with effortless ease before encountering a bit more resistance from the likes of Ricciardo and Vettel (who succumbed nevertheless in the end). He ended up 5th, but does take a 5 place grid penalty for changing engine parts.

Early betting thoughts:

Hamilton, win

Hamilton is 3.9 to win on Betfair. I’ve backed this. Not only does Verstappen now start behind Bottas, the Finn proved the Mercedes was very good on soft tyres, and Hamilton likewise on the medium. He’s been the class of the field all weekend, his car’s the best, and he’s half a second ahead of the rest. As it’s on Betfair, I set up a hedge a 1.4.

That was unusually straightforward but, as always, I then perused the markets just to see if anything else stood out for me.

Double podium, Mercedes, 1.91

This was the only thing that caught my eye. I think Bottas is near certain to remain or regain a top two spot early on, which means all Hamilton would need to do is get himself onto the podium. He was 2.1s away from that in the 24 laps of the sprint, and he starts 10 places higher for the race than he did for that. It’s low odds, which aren’t my favourite type of bet, but it’s also likely to be value. So I’ve backed this as well.

So, a shockingly simple set of betting thoughts and tips.

Hamilton to win (Betfair 3.9) hedged at 1.4

Mercedes double podium (Ladbrokes 1.95 [boosted])

 

Let’s hope Hamilton has a splendid race.

Unsure if there’ll be a post-race ramble. Probable but far from certain. The race starts at 5pm UK time.

Morris Dancer

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