Qatar: post-race analysis 2021

I backed Alonso and it turned out alright in the end, which was a relief given how things transpired. Many things happened during the race so I’ll do my best but cannot guarantee I’ll remember it all just so.

Verstappen had a 5 place grid penalty and Bottas a 3 place penalty for failing to slow sufficiently under yellows, promoting Gasly, Alonso, and Sainz.

Off the line Gasly and Alonso both had good starts but the Frenchman was unable to take Hamilton and it was the wily old Spaniard who ended up second to the Briton. Indeed, in doing so Alonso put a temporary halt to Verstappen’s charge (the Dutchman roared from 7th to 4th right away). Verstappen soon dispatched Gasly and Alonso, and, although he was never quite on Hamilton’s pace (possibly due to front wing damage) the two title contenders amused themselves trading fastest laps and effortlessly surging away from the field. The gap in pace was alarming.

Further down the grid, Bottas had gone backwards at the start while Perez had made progress almost as impressive as Verstappen’s. For a long time it seemed the Finn was just stuck but eventually he got warmed up and started passing cars.

Gasly pitted early, clearly going for a two stop, putting Norris the man behind Alonso. The gap was about 8s or so before stretching out (I think when Perez passed the Briton). Alonso pitted a long time after Gasly but before Norris, and emerged about 12s behind him (and behind both Ferraris on-track, and perhaps ahead of Perez as well.

When Norris was pitted the gap to Alonso had increased, and it was not long (aided by pit stops and a Leclerc brake locking) before the Spaniard carved his way ahead. Meanwhile, Hamilton was comfortably leading, Verstappen was comfortably behind but a day ahead of everyone else.

Perez had the pace and ended up ahead of Alonso. Verstappen pitted to try for a fastest lap and was followed by both Hamilton and Perez. And then calamity and woe occurred. Late on, Bottas, who had been running very long, suffered a puncture that saw him take an excursion in the gravel and trundle most of the lap around with sparks flying.

Suddenly, Alonso was in the final podium position. Gasly had taken a second pit stop and was out of it, Norris was far back, and Perez was behind not only Norris but Ocon too.

Norris pitted for safety and Alpine crossed their fingers. And it worked. A VSC for most of the last few laps helped (Latifi’s car needed rescuing after a similar failure saw him park it by the wayside, and Bottas ended up retiring in the garage). Alonso claimed 3rd, a few seconds ahead of Perez for a rather splendid result. Verstappen, under the VSC, was able to box for soft tyres and secure fastest lap, meaning he still leads Hamilton by 8 (rather than 7 or 6) points.

A bit of a strategic cockup by both Mercedes and Red Bull, but Alpine did very well (Ocon finishing 5th to secure 25 points altogether for the team). Hamilton takes another big bite out of Verstappen’s title lead and is now the favourite (ah, but for the woe of Azerbaijan, Silverstone, and Budapest the Dutchman would have the title already).

The AlphaTauri pace vanished in the race, not aided by a two stop strategy that compromised them seriously. One stop had its risks, as Bottas proved, but was faster than two. (Worth noting the pace advantage of the top pair was such that Verstappen had three stops and was still 24s ahead of Alonso at the flag).

Stroll was largely anonymous in the race but drove well to get 6th, while Vettel started badly and had to make do with 10th after being passed late on by Norris. The Briton’s 9th was ahead of his team mate (Ricciardo only 12th) and Ferrari (7th and 8th with Sainz ahead of Leclerc) extend their lead over McLaren to 39.5 points.

My bet at 5.75 of Alonso being best of the rest came off quite nicely, although it was somewhat stressful what with the potential for the tyre exploding. If you backed him for the podium the boost took it to 12, but that wasn’t a proper tip just a free bet suggestion so I won’t be counting it in the records.

We should be off to Saudi Arabia in a fortnight. The track is not 100% to be ready (I reckon it will be, but we shall see).

Morris Dancer

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