Hamilton’s the favourite - should he be?
After Brazil, Verstappen and Hamilton were seen as having an equal shot of the title with three races to go. After Qatar, Hamilton cut Verstappen’s lead to 8 points and, with two races remaining, has now become the favourite for the title. But should he be?
Over the course of the season it’s been very nip and tuck, with the lead changing hands multiple times. In the last two races, however, Hamilton has had a clear pace advantage over his rival. If that advantage is maintained then, frankly, Verstappen needs a Hamilton DNF in order to win the title, or something remarkable to happen. In terms of weather this is almost certainly not going to happen, as the Middle East is not renowned for its rainstorms and there have been a grand total of no wet races in Abu Dhabi during the many years we’ve gone there.
However, the Mercedes power unit has been a surprising (relative) weak spot this year, both being less reliable than other engines and prone to losing more horsepower. The latter should not matter because Hamilton took a new engine at Brazil, but that race also saw Ricciardo retire when his power unit packed up.
That is not enough to swing the advantage to Verstappen but it will make Mercedes nervous.
To make matters worse for Red Bull, both the remaining tracks are reckoned to be good for Mercedes, a prediction that was true for Qatar. However, the Saudi Arabian circuit is brand new, and the Abu Dhabi circuit has been modified in a bid to make overtaking easier.
At the time of writing it’s meant to be uncertain whether the Saudi track will be ready but it would be remarkable if, with less than a fortnight to go, the plug was pulled. However, if it were, that would be a huge bonus for Red Bull who would only need Verstappen to finish 2nd in Abu Dhabi for the title (and that assuming Hamilton wins).
The key is the performance in the last two races. Hamilton hasn’t just won, he had a clear pace advantage over Verstappen, to the extent that it makes tactical shenanigans tricky for Red Bull. Right now he is the clear favourite. If anything the market may be underestimating just how much the pendulum has swung. Verstappen needs an unexpected thing (preferably, for him, a Hamilton DNF).
I suspect that will not happen, and Hamilton will claim the title, yet again, sealing it at the final race of the year.
Morris Dancer
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