Spain: pre-qualifying 2021

In two of the last three years Hamilton has beaten Bottas for pole by less than a tenth. Given the Red Bull this year I’m anticipating an ultra-close qualifying.

In first practice Bottas was quickest, ahead of Verstappen by less than a tenth, with Hamilton close behind. Norris was only a few tenths further back, narrowly ahead of Leclerc and Sainz. Gasly was next, then Vettel, Perez, and Stroll.

Hamilton was quickest in second practice, just over a tenth ahead of Bottas. Leclerc was within half a tenth of the Finn, and ahead of Ocon and Alonso. Gasly and Tsunoda were separated by just two-hundredths. Sainz, Verstappen, and Perez rounded out the top 10. As you may’ve guessed, Verstappen didn’t manage to get in a lap that represented his real pace.

Verstappen was fastest in the final practice session, two-tenths up on Hamilton. Leclerc, interestingly, was next, two-tenths further back and marginally ahead of team mate Sainz. Bottas was fifth but that time cannot be representative, with Norris, Gasly, Ricciardo, Raikkonen, and Perez completing the top half of the time sheet.

Right now I think it’s far too close to call. Potential for value on Bottas each way. He’s 7, but it’s only a third the odds top 2. Hard to assess if this is worth backing. Given recent woes I’ve decided against backing it, but if you’ve got a free bet I’d stick it on this.

Morris Dancer

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