Monaco: pre-race 2021
And so to the exciting part of a Monaco race weekend: qualifying.
Q1 had some expected departures, with Schumacher last for the excellent reason his car couldn’t be rebuilt in time. Mazepin was slowest on track, with Latifi and Tsunoda also unable to progress. Perhaps the most unusual chap to go out at this early stage was Alonso, who still isn’t firing on all cylinders.
In Q2 Ocon was the fastest of the eliminated drivers, ahead of Ricciardo who was a significant margin behind his team mate yet again. Stroll could only manage the 13th fastest time (Vettel’s good run continues and he reached Q3). Raikkonen was eliminated, as was Russell.
Going into Q3 it was looking like a Ferrari-Verstappen battle with the potential for Bottas to get involved. After the first runs Leclerc was fastest ahead of Verstappen. The Dutchman was flying but then Leclerc crashed into the barriers, and a red flag with 18 seconds on the clock ended qualifying with the Monegasque on pole, and his car in bits. Nevertheless, Verstappen is 2nd on the grid, and his rival Hamilton starts just 7th, which has great promise for the Red Bull driver to narrow his points deficit in the title fight.
Bottas and Sainz comprise the second row, making it an excellent session for Ferrari. They may also be looking forward to Singapore a lot. Norris was 5th and Gasly 6th, an unexpected but impressive third row for both chaps. Hamilton starts a lowly 7th, lining up alongside Vettel. It may be an exercise in damage limitation for the Briton tomorrow.
Perez had bad traffic which hampered his time, but starting 9th is still pretty awful. Giovinazzi is 10th.
At first check, 6.50am, the weather is due to be dry but overcast with no penalty for Leclerc due to a gearbox replacement. However, a secondary check will be done today to confirm it’s ok. If it isn’t that’s a 5 place penalty. And, as Mr. Sandpit helpfully pointed out, if a replacement part can’t be identical then the car starts from the pit lane.
With that in mind, my early betting thoughts were:
Ferrari top scoring team
Vettel points
Check DNFs recently maybe bet on classified numbers
Somewhat annoyingly, there was no top scoring team market on
Ladbrokes, which looked oddly thin. Not sure why.
Bizarrely, the points market also wasn’t up. On Betfair, undeveloped, the Vettel bet is backable at 1.45 which is so-so at best.
In the last three events here the not-classified counts have been 5, 1, and 1. On that basis, both over 16.5 (2.1) and over 17.5 (2.75) are quite tempting.
Even with the market skinnier than a catwalk model from the 1990s, I browsed to see if anything else looked good. And, because of so little being available, nothing did.
That made the only question for me whether to back classified finishers at over 16.5 or 17.5. Non-classified finishers this year have been 1, 1, 2, and 3. In a decision of heroic splitting the difference I decided to lump half a stake on both of those (over 16.5 at 2.1 and over 17.5 at 2.75). As two-half bets it’ll count as one in the records.
Strange to see so few markets up. I know the Leclerc situation is uncertain but it’s hardly the first time something like that has happened.
The race starts at 2pm UK time.
Morris Dancer
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