Portugal: pre-race 2021

Well, it was a very tight battle for pole. But Verstappen was oddly not involved.

The first session of qualifying had a surprise. Not only was Stroll eliminated (Vettel made it through) but Ricciardo wasn’t able to escape and was a second off Norris (who put in the second fastest time. The Aussie made some errors, but this has been a surprisingly rocky start to his time at the team.

The second session saw Leclerc and the Mercedes and Red Bulls setting times on the medium tyres. Risky strategy but paid off for the Monegasque. Neither Alfa Romeo managed to proceed, and Alonso was only 13th, just ahead of Tsunoda (both their team mates advanced), and a couple of spots behind Russell who was the fastest eliminated driver.

The last session was a bit weird. Verstappen set a ‘slow’ fast time but got it eliminated for exceeding track limits when the wind caught him out and he had to sail off-track. Only his slow time would’ve gotten him pole position and when he went out for a second run everyone just about was slower than they had been before. He still ended up 3rd on the grid, alongside his team mate, but it should’ve been pole.

Meanwhile, Bottas edged Hamilton by seven-thousandths. But with a long run and the excellent starts Red Bull have had this year (though they do seem significantly slower on the medium tyres than Mercedes) they could end up slipstreaming ahead.

Row three is Sainz and Ocon, with the fourth row consisting of Norris and Leclerc. Mildly surprised Norris wasn’t further up the grid given how hood his form has been this year. Gasly and Vettel round out the top 10. Nice to see Vettel doing a little better although the fact he managed to improve his time on the second run implies he wasn’t great on the first one.

There appear to be no grid penalties, and the weather is set to be sunny.

Early betting thoughts:
Ricciardo points
Verstappen/Perez lead lap 1

Ricciardo is 1.6 for a points finish (1.76 on Betfair). I think he has a great shot out of it, but the midfield’s very competitive and he starts a long way back (Norris qualified to start 7th). I may back this but it’s far from certain. He’s not been driving too well this far this year.

Verstappen is 5.8 on Betfair to lead the first lap (weirdly, there doesn’t appear to be a Ladbrokes market on this). Typically this year Bottas has started a bit poorly and the Red Bulls are flying off the line, plus they have a long run and plenty of chance for slipstreaming. Odds could be better, mind.

In accordance to ancient custom, I then perused the market to see if any value leapt out at me:
Russell, points, 3
Giovinazzi, points, 4

Russell’s qualified 11th on merit and was just half a tenth off reaching Q3. And he has choice of tyres. The only thing that puts me off is what happened last time when he should’ve scored (and I’d backed him). The odds rise a little to 3.3 on Betfair.

Giovinazzi is 12th on the grid, a tenth behind Russell. Similar reasoning.

Russell should absolutely be value. But if his temperament lets him down then that might not be the case.

If I didn’t offer a tip every race I’m able I’d be tempted to sit this one out.

Decided to back Russell for points (3.3 on Betfair). As long as he keeps his head screwed on (big if) that *should* come off. We shall see.

Race starts at 3pm UK time.

Morris Dancer

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