Spain: pre-race 2021

Quick calendar note: Turkey’s been added to the UK red list which may have implications for that race, which only recently replaced Canada on the schedule.

In Q1 it wasn’t really a surprise to lose the Haas cars and Latifi. Raikkonen perhaps underperformed to leave at this stage, and Tsunoda cocked up and ended up 16th.

Q2 was interesting because both Aston Martins failed to proceed, whereas both Alpines made it to the top 10. As might be expected, Gasly, Giovinazzi, and Russell also exited. Verstappen’s top time was miles faster than the Mercedes, suggesting he might be favourite for pole.

In the end it was extremely close but Hamilton pipped his Dutch rival by a third of a tenth, notching his 100th pole position. Bottas was a tenth further back. Perez screwed up his first lap and on his solitary run could only rack up the 8th fastest time, almost a second off his team mate. Not good enough.

Almost everyone went slower on their second run, with a big exception being Leclerc (switched from old to new tyres) who put his Ferrari into 4th. The third row is Ocon and Sainz, the Frenchman beating Alonso (his Alpine team mate) by a handy six-tenths. Ricciardo and Perez comprise row four, with Norris (surprisingly) just 9th, ahead of Alonso.

Worth noting I think everyone is on softs to start with. I wonder if that’s because the extreme difficulty passing means the teams really don’t want to lose places at the line.

There’s a chasm of six-tenths between the top 3 and the rest, but Leclerc to Perez is covered by two-tenths (and I don’t think Norris’ pace necessarily is reflected in his time). DNFs in the last three years have been 6, 2, and 1.

Early betting thoughts:
Leclerc podium
Verstappen lead lap 1
No Safety Car

All else being equal the top three on the grid should also make the podium. Ferrari’s looked good all weekend, however, and may be able to steal past Bottas from the line or benefit if Hamilton/Verstappen tangle. Odds of 3.75 feel too short, however, as the pace advantage of Mercedes may be enough to facilitate a pass even on a circuit where it’s very difficult.

Verstappen is 3.7 to lead lap 1. He’s started well pretty much everywhere this year. Checking my own records for the last few races (2020 is missing, I think I was ill at the time) it seems this is a possible overtake but not as easy as at some places.

From checking Wikipedia it appears races since 2011 have seen safety cars at three events, with one virtual safety car. This year has seen the safety car appear at every race, although last time it was slightly unusual. This may make the odds longer than they should be. No Safety car is only 2.4, which is quite a bit shorter than I anticipated.

In accordance with the principles of the Giant Space Pig Monster, may his astral snout be sated, I then consulted the various other markets in the quest for value.

More than 17.5 classified finishers, 2.1

As noted above, the non-classified finishers in recent races have been 6, 2, and 1. In addition, this year, the figures are 2, 3, and 1. Both suggest a single or pair of non-classified finishers is the likeliest outcome.

That’s the only thing to appeal, so that’s what I’ve backed.

Due to exciting electrical reasons my viewing of the race might be disrupted. If that happens, not sure if I’ll watch highlights instead, or what. So if the post-race tosh is delayed that’s why. Even more delightfully, a separate electricity problem might be addressed tomorrow, so there’s an off-chance the post-race prognostications might not be up until Tuesday.

The race starts at 2pm UK time.

Morris Dancer

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Monaco: pre-race 2023

F1 2014 - Second and Third Tests

America: pre-race