Monaco: pre-qualifying 2021

Ah, Monaco. Like dusting my shelves, only more tedious and time-consuming.

Anyway, in first practice Perez was quickest, a tenth ahead of Sainz and with Verstappen close behind. A few tenths further back was Gasly, then Hamilton, Bottas, and Norris, with Vettel, Tsunoda, and Raikkonen rounding out the top 10.

Around this time Mr. B, from politicalbetting.com, suggested Ferrari/Leclerc might be good bets. And second practice certainly makes this look credible.

Leclerc and Sainz topped the timesheets, separated by a tenth, with the Spaniard more than a quarter of a second ahead of Hamilton. Verstappen was a whole seven-thousandths behind his title rival, with Bottas following. There was a bigger gap back to Norris, then came Gasly, Perez, Giovinazzi, and Vettel.

In short, the Prancing Horse might be about to spoil the Red Bull/Silver Arrows party of 2021.

Third practice featured a couple of red flags, with both Latifi and Schumacher saying hello to the barriers. Verstappen ended up fastest, half a tenth ahead of Sainz. Leclerc was two-tenths further back, with a similar gap to Bottas, then Perez. Norris, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Gasly, and Vettel complete the top half of the timesheet.

Ferrari are looking good. I do wonder if Perez will improve, and whether Leclerc has the pace for pole (or if Sainz is actually going to outshine the team’s overt number one). Qualifying, at least, is looking interesting. Also worth noting the late Schumacher red flag snipped off the end of third practice so some teams didn’t get their runs in.

Trying to guess who has the best shot of pole or what the real odds are is, therefore, pretty challenging. The top four are Verstappen at 1.95, Leclerc 4.5, Hamilton 5.5, and Sainz 6. Perez and Bottas are 23.

Of those, I think Sainz and Perez perhaps offer the best value but it’s very hard to call. I have a small, pre-practice bet on Perez anyway, at very slightly longer odds, and put a free bet on Sainz, but don’t feel like tipping on this.

Morris Dancer

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