Sakhir: pre-race 2020

Tricky call on whether to back Russell to be top 2 in qualifying. In the end, it came off and was modestly green, but it could’ve easily been very green or red, such were the tiny margins amongst the top three drivers in qualifying.

In Q1 we lost both Williams, both Haas, and Raikkonen. Aitken was within a tenth of Latifi, which is impressive given it’s his first time qualifying. Fittipaldi was further back but that’s to be expected given new parts meant grid penalties which guaranteed he’d start last anyway.

Q2 was interesting in that every eliminated car was from a different team. Norris buggered things up, or his team sent him out early, and he was slowest of all. Ocon, Albon, Vettel, and Giovinazzi likewise failed to progress.

I believe Q2 chaps on the medium were the Mercedes, Verstappen, Leclerc, and Ricciardo. Could be wrong, but I think that’s right.

The first Q3 runs were interesting as Verstappen was fastest and Leclerc, out of nowhere, was right behind him. It turned out the Mercedes were running on old softs, and during their middle run (they actually had three) normal service was resumed, with Bottas very narrowly ahead of Russell. In the end, Bottas got pole, with Russell three-hundredths behind the Finn and the same margin ahead of Verstappen. Leclerc was 4^th, albeit a quarter of a second off the ultimate pace, making this look very much like a three horse race.

Perez was next up, and he shares the third row with Kvyat, who put in an impressive turn of pace right at the end. Ricciardo and Sainz comprise row four, with Gasly and Stroll behind them.

That’s a really nice set up for the race, both in terms of the podium battle and the hyper competitive midfield. It also reinforces my view it’d be nuts for Red Bull to retain Albon when Perez (or Hulkenberg) could be driving for them.

Once again, the risk of rain has receded. The Fittipaldi penalty was already known and I believe that’s the only one.

Early betting thoughts:
Low number of classified finishers
Leclerc podium
Perez podium
Norris points

There’s evens on the number of classified finishers falling below 16.5, and 2.75 on the number being under 15.5. Last time out we had two dramatic fiery incidents, Grosjean’s and Perez’s. But the only other driver who failed to finish was the unfortunate Stroll, tipped onto his roof by Kvyat. This circuit is a lot shorter, however, and drivers will more regularly be in close contact. But the odds still don’t appeal.

Leclerc is 6 for a podium. Perez is 3.25 for a podium. They start 4^th and 5^th. Weirdly, the margin between Leclerc and Perez behind was practically identical to that for Verstappen ahead. However, I think that’s because the Monegasque put together a nigh on perfect lap. Not sure I agree his odds should be longer than Perez’s, but both bets face the same problem: if the top three don’t crash or suffer other woe, they’re likely to run off and hide. Verstappen and Bottas are 6.5 and 7.5 respectively to not be classified, which *might* be better value (although it’s worth noting Bottas managed to finish low down the points last weekend). Not something for me.

Norris’ qualifying was weird. He and Sainz are well-matched but whether it was team error or he messed things up, he ended up 15^th and aborted a couple of laps. Sainz starts 8^th, within a tenth of 6^th-starting Kvyat, which shows the car is competitive. For points, Norris is 1.5. That’s pretty tight given where he starts. It’s certainly credible but the midfield is very competitive and almost all the competition is ahead of him.

Been a few weekends since none of my initial thoughts have yielded anything tempting. So, time to partake in the ancient custom of browsing the whole market and seeing if anything stands out. Here’s what caught my eye:

Sainz, top 6, 2.8
Mercedes, double podium finish, 1.73
Russell, lead lap 1, 6.5

Sainz had a very good race last time, rising from 15^th to 5^th. He starts 8^th this time, and, as mentioned before, was within a tenth of the chap who got 6^th in qualifying. He’s a good racer, and McLaren have been pretty good this year on strategy calls. 2.8 isn’t incredible value but it is long enough to be tempting. In his last five races he’s been top 6 in four (the preceding two races were DNFs).

If the Mercedes finish a ‘normal’ race, they should be dead certs to get a double podium. The question is whether the pressure will get to either of them, and whether the certain traffic or a pit stop mishap will get in the way. 1.73 is shorter than most bets I go for, but this is also tempting.

Bottas has started badly at a few races. If he does so today, there’s a long run to the first corner. Verstappen is 2.7, Russell is 6.5 to lead lap 1. Russell has a car that’s very slightly faster and will have a chap punching a hole in the air for him (probably) so even if Bottas has an ok start there’s still a route for the Briton to get the lead. First start that high up the grid, though.

All three of those are somewhat tempting, to be honest.

I’m backing Sainz to be top 6 at 2.8 (2.87 with boost). He’s on a good run of form, has a competitive car, and has driven well on the same surface (not the same track layout, mind). Wheel-to-wheel skills will count for a lot on a congested track.

The other two bets are tempting, but not quite enough for me to back them.

Because the race starts later than usual (5.10pm) the post-race ramble might be up either later, tomorrow, or not at all (I have this hobby called ‘work’ during weekdays which does tend to take up a lot of my time).

Let's hope the race is exciting, and profitable.

Morris Dancer