Abu Dhabi: pre-race 2020

And so we come to the final qualifying session of a very odd F1 season.

Q1 was not very odd, however. Both Haas and Williams left at this stage, as did Raikkonen.

Q2 was rather more peculiar. Perez didn’t bother setting a time due to his engine penalty (he starts last but one, only Fittipaldi behind him). Giovinazzi and Vettel also failed to progress. Quite unexpectedly, both Renaults failed to make the top 10, Ocon ahead of Ricciardo. This may not be so bad, as a single stop from starting on mediums could be the optimal approach.

Speaking of which the Mercedes, Leclerc, Verstappen, and Sainz all set their Q2 times on medium tyres and progressed, so will start on those same tyres. Soft starters include Norris, the AlphaTauris, Stroll, and Albon.

In Q3 the first runs had Bottas fastest, ahead of Verstappen, Hamilton, and Albon, that quartet covered by a tenth and a half. The third row was a McLaren duel, Sainz two-tenths ahead of Norris (but on fresh rather than used rubber).

It all switched around after the final runs, though. Hamilton improved but so did Bottas to reclaim provisional pole, only for Verstappen to get a surprise pole (he was circa 9 for this pre-qualifying). They were all within a tenth. Fourth was a surprisingly speedy Norris (happily, this means my season bet on him beating Sainz came off. Evens).

The third row was Albon, three-tenths and one place ahead of Sainz. Kvyat, Stroll, Leclerc, and Gasly rounded out the top 10.

My initial thoughts were:

Perez points/top 6
Sainz top 6
Verstappen win
Double Renault points

The Mexican chap who may be out next year, alas, is 1.5 for points. Given how competitive things are, this doesn’t tempt me. Probably good for it on pace, but the potential for collisions and/or reliability failure makes me wary of the tight odds. Perez is also 2.87 to be top 6. Given he starts practically last, that’s pretty long. Reminder that Sainz was 2.8 to be top 6 last race and he starts 8th.

Speaking of Sainz, he’s 1.5 to be top 6. Good shot at it, but I dislike odds that short.

Verstappen is 2.1 for the win (2.2 on the enhanced win only market and 2.58 on Betfair Exchange). On qualifying pace he’s a tiny fraction faster but I do wonder if that’ll translate to the race. This might be marginal value.

Renault are 1.83 for points. They’ll start 10th and 11th thanks to Leclerc’s 3 place penalty but, once again, the chance of shenanigans, especially off the line, plus both needing to achieve this with a very competitive midfield put me off.

And so, to browse the markets and see if anything delightful jumps out. And nothing did. Which is unusual.

So I went with my favoured bet from the list above:

Verstappen, win, 2.58 (Betfair Exchange, no hedge unless you want to slip one in at 1.1 or suchlike as a late safety measure).

I also had a £1 free bet on Ladbrokes which, as a saver, I put on Hamilton at 4.5 to lead lap 1. Not a proper tip but thought I’d mention it.

Didn’t see much value today but the season overall has been pretty good on the betting front, and had some tasty races too. Turns out when you strip away most of the tedious identikit street circuits the racing’s better. Whoever would’ve guessed?

Let’s hope it’s profitable and entertaining today.

Morris Dancer

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