Sakhir: pre-qualifying 2020

I was lucky to catch, minutes after the announcement, that Hamilton was to miss this race due to COVID-19. Therefore backed Verstappen and Bottas at 6 and 5.5 rapidly, before Ladbrokes could change the odds. Doubtful, given the next race is just a week later, Hamilton will be ok for that, but not impossible.

This kicked off driver changes aplenty, odd for such a time of year. Russell gets a drive in a Mercedes for at least this race and perhaps the next. His place at Williams is taken by fellow Briton Jack Aitken. Meanwhile, Grosjean is replaced by Pietro Fittipaldi this weekend, with Mick Schumacher (announced as a Haas driver next year, alongside Nikita Mazepin) volunteering to take the seat next race if Grosjean cannot return in Abu Dhabi.

The first session of practice had interesting results. Russell topped the session, a tenth ahead of Verstappen, with Albon just a tenth further back. Bottas could only manage fourth, over three-tenths behind his temporary team mate. The track layout is shorter, with laps of circa 55s, so that’s a pretty large margin. Kvyat and Gasly were next up, followed by Ocon, Vettel, Ricciardo, and Leclerc. I do wonder if Racing Point are sandbagging, but we’ll see soon.

Second practice was similar, with Russell again quickest, again a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Perez was less than three-hundredths off the Dutchman, however. Ocon, Albon, and Kvyat weren’t far behind, followed by Stroll, Ricciardo, Gasly, and Sainz. Bottas was eleventh. But that was because a lap time was eliminated for exceeding track limits and, but for that, he would’ve been top or very close to it.

Verstappen was fastest in final practice, two-tenths ahead of Bottas. Gasly, Ocon, Norris, Albon, Russell, Perez, and Stroll were all covered by three-tenths, and Sainz was just three-hundredths off Stroll. The margins are going to be very, very tight. And traffic will embugger many a driver.

The most obvious bet to consider is Russell each way for qualifying. There’s also a 1.91 special on Mercedes to be 1-2 in qualifying but I think that’s one to avoid giving how tight things are.

Russell is 6 (without boost) at Ladbrokes to top qualifying, with a third the odds top 2 available each way. If you really think traffic will seriously ruin things for others then Gasly is 51 and Albon 67, but I don’t think things will be that bad, especially as traffic will be lower in Q3. Worth mentioning, though.

Hmm. Quite tempted to back Russell, especially given I’m nicely green on Verstappen or Bottas for the win. It’s 6.5 with boost, and I think it’s worth backing each way. It’s likely a three horse race and his P3 time was compromised by a lockup and doesn’t represent his actual pace.

I also had a £1 free bet, which I decided to stick on Gasly each way for the win at 41, but that was primarily to help cover off another contingency given my pre-existing position.

Incidentally, Fittipaldi’s car has new bits almost certainly consigning him to the back of the grid. And Vettel’s Ferrari is having a new power unit for qualifying, which is quite a tight turn around time.

Weirdly, the qualifying and race start times are quite different to last weekend. Qualifying starts at 5pm, with the race kicking off at 5.10pm.

Morris Dancer