Sakhir: post-race analysis 2020

Well, bugger me with a fishfork. That was a season in a race. The bet came off, but bloody hell it was dramatic. A lot happened, so forgive me if I misremember details.

Off the line Bottas had a trademark bad start. Verstappen got away well but found himself the filling in a Mercedes sandwich and had to back off. Russell, meanwhile, leapt ahead of his team mate and drove off, building up a nice lead rapidly.

Further back, Verstappen was keeping out of the way of Perez when Leclerc tried passing the Mexican only to tap him. Perez was put to the back of the field, the Monegasque was out of the race and Verstappen’s attempted evasive action saw him DNF as well.

Cue the safety car. Perez pitted for fresh rubber and was 18^th of 18 cars.

The Mercedes looked in control, and were. For now.

Perez was aided by the safety car and set about hauling himself through the field. Meanwhile, Sainz, Ricciardo, and Kvyat were in high positions.

Through the pit stops, an AlphaTauri undercut put the Russian ahead of the Renault whilst McLaren’s swift reactions enabled Sainz to retain his position as best of the rest.

Russell set about building something of a lead, 2-3s, and after the first pit stop this was up to 8s and more. Bottas was looking rather ordinary.

During a VSC McLaren smartly pitted Norris for a quick stop but ran out of luck when they brought in Sainz (Renault doing likewise with Ricciardo) for a probably unnecessary stop. These chaps had been best of the rest and found themselves 7^th and 8^th, behind Albon (plus both Racing Points and Ocon).

But then the mother of all screwups happened. In fact, the mother and father. And it was Mercedes who did the pair. They stacked the Mercedes for an unnecessary stop. Russell’s seemed fine, Bottas was very slow and they ended up sending him out with the same tyres he’d had when he entered the pit lane.

But the bigger problem was Russell. Notionally in the lead he’d comfortably held ever since claiming it, he had to stop again because they’d put on a mixed set of tyres (which might yet get him a penalty). The second stop put him 5^th.

The safety car was trundling around, and Perez, man without a seat next year, was leading. Ocon behind him, then Stroll.

…..

This was not in the script.

But there was perhaps a dozen laps left. Could Bottas or Russell yet claim the win?

Russell passed Bottas early on when the safety car exited the pit, and he clawed up to pass Ocon too. Just one place to go for a famous victory.

And then capricious fate struck. He had a slow puncture. He boxed and was down to 15^th. Out of the points. And though he drove well to recover in the points (presumably, possible he’ll get the aforementioned penalty) it was not the win he had looked sure to claim.

Meanwhile, Perez had built up an 8s gap over Ocon and cruised to his maiden victory a week after a podium had burnt away in a blazing engine. Ocon got his first ever podium and Stroll made it two Racing Points on the podium.

Blimey.

That was quite the race. Sainz ended up 4^th which was nice for the bet, Ricciardo right behind him. Norris was only 10^th, so it was a net loss for McLaren to Renault but Racing Point had the best day of the ‘midfield’ (who were 1-5 today).

Albon was 6^th. And if Red Bull keep him rather than opting for Perez or Hulkenberg then they’re mad as a box of frogs.

Kvyat was 7^th which is pretty good, bit surprised Gasly was only 11^th. Bottas and Russell ended up 8^th and 9^th.

Best of the rest teams:

Racing Point 194
McLaren 184
Renault 172

I’m green if Racing Point or McLaren get it, thanks to a £1 free bet, pre-season, at 26 on Racing Point. Never expected that to come off. Might not, but they’re in a good spot. Not impossible for Renault to snag this, but doubtful.

Best of the rest drivers:

Perez 125
Ricciardo 112
Leclerc 98
Sainz 97
Albon 93

My hedging bet on Leclerc is now looking quite unnecessary. However, green on Perez. Ricciardo needs a podium next time to have any chance of getting this. Perez should get it.

Phew. That was a fantastic race. And the most profitable I’ve had since Spain 2016, thanks to luckily being online when Hamilton’s absence broke on Twitter. Glad I slipped a tiny sum on Perez at long odds during that brief window of opportunity. The blog bets came off, so the ‘official’ weekend profit is £27 or so, 2/2. The Sainz one could’ve gone either way. Disadvantaged by the pit stop misfortune but hugely aided by Verstappen and Leclerc DNFing immediately and the Mercedes woe late on. Overall, fortuitous, I think.

One more race to go in this strangest of seasons. Abu Dhabi, next weekend.

Morris Dancer