Abu Dhabi: post-race analysis 2020

Well, I wanted the race to be profitable and entertaining. And I got half my wish. The Verstappen bet not only came off, it never looked in real doubt. Modest little win to round off a very good season from a sporting and betting perspective.

Off the line it was formation flying for almost everyone. Nobody crashed into anyone else, the only real change was Leclerc slipping back a spot behind his team mate (not great for the Monegasque as he was on the medium and his team mate, for the final time, had the hards on).

Verstappen effortlessly eased away from the Mercedes and Hamilton was never in Bottas’ DRS window when that became active.

It was at this point that the one interesting thing permitted at each race in Abu Dhabi occurred: Perez, who had been making solid progress carving through the field, suffered a car failure and had to pull over.

This brought out a VSC and practically everyone except Ricciardo and the Ferraris pitted. The VSC then became an actual safety car. Verstappen handled the restart well, and nothing much changed. He simply set about rebuilding his lead with apparently little trouble.

For Ferrari, the strategy was an error. They got gobbled up by cars on fresh tyres and then had to pit later. For Ricciardo, in clearer air, it worked pretty well, and he was a net gainer. This was partly because Vettel (Leclerc was pitted sooner) held up many others who could’ve been traffic for the Aussie, meaning that when he pitted he only lost two places to the McLarens right behind him.

And so Verstappen cruised to probably the easiest F1 victory he’s ever had, miles ahead of Mercedes. Bottas was a comfortable 2^nd. Indeed, it was Hamilton (possibly feeling the aftereffects of pestilence) who was in more danger as Albon was closing in on the last couple of laps. Good race by the Thai, but Red Bull should still replace him.

McLaren had a great result for 5^th and 6^th, Norris leading the way, though Sainz is under investigation at the time of writing for driving unnecessarily slowly in the pit lane. Could see a penalty, or not. Ricciardo got 7^th, with Ocon 9^th after a last lap pass on Stroll. Gasly got 8^th for AlphaTauri.

 And so a season with many cracking races, including the dramatically exciting Sakhir a week earlier, ends in a damp squib at Abu Dhabi, as has become traditional. But it was nice someone who isn’t Hamilton won, for the sake of variety, and McLaren did well (perhaps pending investigatory results) to pip Racing Point to the post for best of the rest (which means my bet on that at 3.1 came off). Perez, tipped for best of the rest at 3.6, achieved that despite suffering two reliability DNFs in the last three races. He’s been one of the very best drivers this year. We shall see what the future holds for him.

The race was boring. Mostly stretched gaps and the passes were largely due to DRS and tyre differences along a straight. But let that not detract from what has been a pretty fantastic season with numerous very good races, and I enjoyed a better than average slice of luck, which has made 2020 the most profitable year for me since 2016. There were odd boring races and some misfortune, but overall it’s been a rather good year, and a full season when that seemed very doubtful.

The return to a more regular calendar featuring fewer classics and more identikit street circuits will see an improvement in the quantity rather than the quality of venues attended, alas. Let us hope Ferrari can come roaring back, Red Bull can take the fight to Mercedes, and McLaren can continue and improve upon their strong form this year.

Morris Dancer