Mexico: pre-race 2019

The start of qualifying was, frankly, rather predictable. The end was not, in a number of ways.

In the first part of qualifying the Williams were slowest, with the Haas once again unable to make the tyres work (the soft tyres are looking extremely crumbly this time around). Stroll, again, failed to escape as well.

In Q2 Perez was the fastest of those eliminated, which isn’t a bad place to start given the four ahead of him will, I think, be on the crumbly cheese soft tyres and Perez is talented at making his tyres last a long time. Medium/hard tyres to start with and a one stop (either one or two could work) seems the order of the day. Behind him are Hulkenberg and Ricciardo, and then Raikkonen and Giovinazzi.

Would the Ferraris be as unstoppable as we all thought? No. Verstappen put in the fastest lap on the first run, surprisingly. Bottas was last of the top teams’ drivers, behind Albon. And on the second run the Finn over-egged the cake and ended up slamming into the wall at the final corner, bringing out a yellow flag and gifting Verstappen the pole without contest.

Or did he? The Dutchman didn’t appear to slow down when the yellow flag was being waved.

Would Verstappen be penalised for insufficiently slowing under yellow flags? Would Bottas need new parts and start further down the order?

The Dutchman got a three place grid penalty, putting him down to 4^th on the grid. A shame as his ‘pole’ lap was extremely impressive. Accordingly, the top 6 are:

Leclerc

Vettel

Hamilton

Verstappen

Albon

Bottas

The race should be dry.

Early betting thoughts:

Perez for points

Yep, that was the sum total of my thinking (admittedly, at 7.11am and only halfway into my first coffee).

The Perez bet is basically because he’s 11^th, and has better tyres than those ahead of him which could be very handy. His odds are 1.57. I think that’s pretty reasonable, actually. But, as is customary, I browser the market to see if anything leapt out.

Perez, winner without the big 6, 10 (each way, third the odds top 2)

Hulkenberg/Ricciardo, winner without the big 6, 17 each way

Vettel, lead lap 1, 3.8

Leclerc to beat Verstappen, 1.72

Some interesting things in there.

The other four ahead of Perez (McLarens and Toro Rossos) are all of a kind. All clumped together on the grid, and all on the crumbly tyres. If that’s faster than Perez then they’re fishing in the same pool and it’s tricky to tell who’ll get the catch. If Perez’s approach is faster then he’s going to be in good shape.

The same applies to the Renaults, although they start behind the Mexican and have had some problems lately, whether it’s late penalties or the car not coming home. The straights matter a lot here, which may mean that Perez and his Mercedes-powered car are in a better position than the Renaults. But then, the odds for Perez are 10 and the Renault chaps are 17 each. [I checked the last few races and drivers have risen from outside the top 10 a few times].

Vettel leading lap 1 is based on a couple of things. He might just start better, and the straights might make it possible for him to pass. There’s been one overtake of this nature in the last three races, so the odds of 3.8 look about right.

Leclerc starts 1^st and Verstappen starts 4^th. The Dutchman also has a bad habit of starting poorly, and it’s really hard to overtake (lap 1 and tyre differences aside) at Mexico. On top of that, whilst his car was surprisingly fast in qualifying and, on relative pace, should be even faster in the race, it’s quick in the corners not on the straights. So, it’s more likely to get trapped behind slower cars. Given all that, 1.72 on Leclerc beating him actually looks alright.

Slightly surprisingly, I like the look of quite a lot of those.

I’m backing Perez to be the winner without the big 6, each way at 10 (third the odds top 2), for reasons outlined above. I’ve also put a little on Leclerc to beat Verstappen at 1.72.

As a bit of fun, I’ve decided to put some tiny stakes on football as well (plus an accumulator). I know very little about football so these can’t really be considered tips:

Wolves to beat Newcastle at 2.6

Liverpool to beat Tottenham at 1.53

Arsenal and Crystal Palace to draw at 4.4

Manchester United to beat Norwich at 1.86

Accumulator of all four at 32.79

I might have a few more forays into football, although it’ll very much be a diversion from the main business of F1.

Speaking of which, the race starts at the annoying hour of 7.10pm UK time. Post-race ramble should be up tomorrow.

Morris Dancer