Mexico: post-race analysis 2019

Well, the Mexican Grand Prix was a lot more entertaining than I expected, and as profitable as I could’ve hoped for. Both bets came off, helped (one in particular) with rather a lot of good luck.

Off the line Leclerc did well to fend off Vettel, who cut across Hamilton. The Briton and Verstappen collided, putting Hamilton a few places back and Verstappen even further down the field. The prime beneficiary was Albon, who was, I think, right behind Leclerc and Vettel.

Verstappen set about passing those ahead of him, but had contact with Bottas and suffered a puncture. It was a long way back to the pits, although he did shed some weight when most of a tyre went walkies. The Dutchman ended up plumb last and the virtual safety car emerged (although the real one never made an appearance).

It all looked set fair for the Ferraris. They were 1 and 2, with Verstappen (who ended up having sufficient pace to indicate he would’ve been a real contender for the win) relegated to the back.

But then the strategies diverged. Bottas pitted. Leclerc pitted. And then Hamilton pitted. Leclerc was destined for a second stop as he swapped like for like. Behind them, Ricciardo kept trundling around on hard tyres with which he’d started (and did so for 50 or so out of 71 laps). Perez was behind the Aussie on track but had swapped his mediums for hards some time earlier. Sainz had been ahead of them but had to pit earlier due to soft tyres going off, and then ended up making two stops (Perez and Ricciardo making just one each).

After the pit stops had shaken out, Hamilton led but was on old hard tyres having had a single stop, Vettel was a couple of seconds behind him, and Bottas a couple of seconds behind him, with the German and Finn on two stops and fresher tyres. Leclerc was 10s behind them but catching at a rapid rate of knots.

Bottas got within DRS range of Vettel but the Ferrari’s power down the straight was immense and the Mercedes had no chance of a pass. It seemed that when Leclerc caught Bottas the Ferrari would breeze past. But then Leclerc cocked up a corner, and from then on could never really close up, the damage to his tyre seeming to ruin his pace.

But surely Vettel would pounce on Hamilton and his old hard tyres? It turns out this Hamilton chap’s quite good at driving, and had cunningly preserved his tyres. Vettel couldn’t get into DRS range. Hamilton did just enough to rack up yet another win. And very impressive it was too. Vettel got 2^nd and Bottas 3^rd.

Behind them Leclerc ended up just 4^th, and Albon 5^th. But who’s this in 6^th? Turns out Verstappen passed everybody, and went from last to 6^th, which isn’t bad, even given his car’s pace, on a set of hard tyres for practically the whole race.

There was a great fight between Perez and Ricciardo, the Aussie behind on track and on fresh medium tyres. He was significantly faster but made a rare mistake under braking, cooking his tyres. I thought my bet had a get out of jail free card, but with the remaining laps Ricciardo closed up and got within a few tenths of Perez. But the Mexican drove a perfect defensive race to hold onto 7^th and, with it, best of the rest. Ricciardo was 8^th and Hulkenberg should’ve been 9^th but the German was tipped by Kvyat into the wall on the last lap, and ended the race with no points and a broken rear wing. Penalty for Kvyat seems eminently possible but at the time of writing he’s recorded as 9^th, with Gasly 10^th (not bad given his health problems over the weekend).

Edited extra bit: Kvyat got a 10s time penalty. This drops him to 11^th and Hulkenberg ends up 10^th.

Norris suffered an atrocious pit stop, as did Raikkonen and Leclerc, but Norris had the worst of it. The Briton had a wheel not attached when he was sent on his way. He managed to stop before the line and his pit crew wheeled him back, but after circulating at the back they brought him in to box and retire. Shame. Sainz also finished well outside the points, the McLaren not living up to its qualifying promise (compromised, most likely by the soft tyres).

Although there wasn’t much overtaking at the sharp end the strategy battle was intriguing and there was quite a bit of action further back. Rather more interesting than I’d expected, and from a betting perspective the best weekend of the year, with both tips coming off.

Hamilton didn’t wrap up the title this time round, but Bottas needs to pretty much win every race and Hamilton DNF every time. It’s just a matter of time.

Constructors:

Mercedes 652

Ferrari 466

Red Bull 341

McLaren 111

Renault 72

Racing Point 65

Toro Rosso 65

Alfa Romeo 35

Haas 28

Williams 1

If the numbers look wonky it’s because recent penalties etc have retconned the results of at least the Japanese Grand Prix. McLaren have all but sealed the best of the rest title despite a distinctly lacklustre race. Behind them it’s nice and competitive, with 7 points covering Renault, Racing Point, and Toro Rosso. Only a few races left, and Renault will be hoping they can hold off their rivals. Haas look a bit ropey and Alfa will likely retain their current 8^th. Williams will be glad when the season’s over.

Quick football note: three of the four match bets came off (the accumulator, of course, failing). Quite pleased although this is just a silly diversion. Green overall, a bit.

The next race is next weekend, in the US. Good circuit. Not sure the start time, though. Not a fan of later starts.

Morris Dancer