Mexico: pre-qualifying 2019



Note from last race: post-race Leclerc got a 15s penalty (5s for the collision with Verstappen and 10s for continuing to drive unsafely). This put him down one place to 7th and promoted Ricciardo to 6th.

Note 2: both Renaults have been disqualified from the last race. Promoting Leclerc again. Excitingly, they were disqualified for something deemed legal, but also a driver aid. Er… (braking system, I think with some remote fiddling). Mr. Sandpit has helpfully pointed out the device is legal but the manner of its usage was not, so thanks to him for clarifying the situation.

In first practice Hamilton was fastest, a tenth ahead of Leclerc and Verstappen. Half a second further back was Albon, Bottas close behind. Vettel was next, then came Sainz, Gasly, Kvyat, and Giovinazzi.

Second practice had Vettel top of the time sheet, a tenth ahead of Verstappen. Leclerc was a few tenths further back, followed by Bottas and Hamilton. Kvyat and Gasly came next, with Sainz, Hulkenberg, and Norris following.

So far, looks good for Verstappen and probably Ferrari, and also McLaren and Toro Rosso. Until news of Gasly being sick and sitting out third practice, and perhaps qualifying, came through.

Leclerc was fastest in third practice, but only two-hundredths ahead of his team mate and a tenth ahead of Bottas. Hamilton was next, a couple of tenths ahead of Sainz, with Verstappen, Gasly, Albon, Norris, and Perez behind the Spaniard. Worth mentioning that the track started out as wet enough for inters but dried up for slicks, so the relative pace in practice might not reflect actual pace.

I think Vettel might be value (he certainly was at the 4.5 he started at, but he was 2.5 last I checked).

He’s only 2.2 to top qualifying, but Bottas is 13, which at a fifth the odds top 3 is worth considering. Verstappen is 6.5, and Hamilton 8.5. Leclerc is a tiny bit shorter than Vettel.

All else being equal I think it’s too difficult to call who comes behind the Ferraris, who should have the front row, so I’m disinclined to bet. If I were to do so, Bottas each way would be how I’d do it.

The pre-race ramble will be up sometime tomorrow.

Morris Dancer

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