Japan: post-race analysis 2019

The bet failed (in the dry, Japan tends to have few DNFs, which I’d forgotten) but the race was entertaining. Not only was there no drizzle, it looked bright and sunny.

A look at the grid, given we didn’t know it beforehand: Vettel and Leclerc were the front row, followed by Bottas and Hamilton. Verstappen and Albon (who set identical qualifying times) were next, then Sainz, and then I can’t recall off the top of my head.

Vettel had a false start but managed to stop very quickly and seemingly didn’t trip the sensor. It seems he won’t get any penalty. However, he did cock up the start, Leclerc wasn’t hot either, and Bottas and Verstappen had good getaways. The Finn took the lead and Verstappen was in the process of passing Leclerc round the outside of a corner when the Monegasque collided with the side of the Dutchman’s car. This caused a lot of damage to the Red Bull, necessitated a pit stop, led to a significant lack of pace and, ultimately, retirement. The front wing of Leclerc was also damaged and he refused to pit, despite team instructions, for a couple of laps.

Bizarre situation with the stewards. They said no investigation needed initially, then they were investigating, and then they would investigate after the race.

Anyway, the top few early on were Bottas, Vettel, Hamilton with Leclerc and Verstappen both near the back due to said pit stops. Sainz and Norris were doing very well, both ahead of Albon, who had started poorly.

Things settled down a bit. Lack of pace made it heavy going for Verstappen at the back (and he retired in the garage later). Leclerc had an easier time of it.

Norris did not have an easy time of it. Moving with the fluid grace of a drunk Pastor Maldonado, Albon side-swiped the McLaren on his way to a ‘pass’. No action was deemed necessary by the stewards, although Norris did require a pit stop which buggered his race. Bear in mind he was right behind Sainz in the running order when this happened.

Vettel pitted for another set of soft tyres, making the two stop nailed on. Bottas pitted for medium tyres. But Mercedes left Hamilton out for a few laps more. Meanwhile, his team mate was cutting three seconds into Hamilton’s notional lead with each passing lap.

Hamilton pitted and emerged 10s or so behind Vettel and 20s behind Bottas. He was understandably grumpy, and on a theoretical one stop, compared to two for both of those ahead of him.

As it happened, tyre degradation meant he ended up pitting again, coming out shortly behind Vettel (who had also stopped a second time, likewise Bottas, now leading). Further down the field, Leclerc had passed almost everyone and was behind Sainz (who had been passed by Albon).

Hamilton closed up on Vettel and was clearly faster, but the Ferrari’s straight line speed was beyond Mercedes and some good defensive driving, especially when a gaggle of backmarkers were encountered, ensured the German retained his 2^nd place (Bottas cruising to victory). Hamilton was right behind as they crossed the line.

Got to say I wasn’t impressed with Leclerc for not coming into the pits early on. Some bits did fly off his car and could’ve easily caused damage to Hamilton’s car (or, indeed, Hamilton).

There was some late drama. Gasly, Hulkenberg, and Perez were all close together. The Mexican passed the Toro Rosso driver, only to find himself playing the part of Max Verstappen in a dramatic re-enactment of the first lap incident. Perez was punted off and ended up in the barrier. A shame as he’d driven a solid race and was on the way to getting some more points for his team.

Edited extra bit: and he did, due to a freak stroke of luck. A timing glitch meant the race counted for 52 laps not the 53 it should’ve been. So Perez got 9^th, behind Gasly, ahead of Hulkenberg.

Ricciardo had pitted later than just about anyone else and spent the last few laps passing various people, finishing 7^th, just behind Leclerc.

Hamilton got the fastest lap and the extra point that goes with it, but I imagine he’ll be less than thrilled with how things went.

Norris, having been up there with Sainz and Albon, ended up only 13^th. Haas and Alfa Romeo had a rather anonymous race, all out of the points.

Drivers:

Hamilton 338

Bottas 274

Leclerc 223

Vettel 212

Verstappen 212

Pretty much wrapped up. There are four races left so Bottas needs to get 65 unanswered points against Hamilton in that time. Theoretically possible but highly implausible. The latter three are out of the running entirely, although I hope Leclerc retains his place (I have some bets on him finishing in the top 3 and beating Vettel).

Constructors*:

Mercedes 612

Ferrari 435

Red Bull 323

McLaren 111

Renault 75

Toro Rosso 59

Racing Point 54

Alfa Romeo 35

Haas 28

Williams 1

I think it’ll largely finish that way but things are tight between Toro Rosso and Racing Point, as well as Alfa Romeo and Haas. One strong result could flip either of those contests. Renault are too far back to compete with McLaren, given the top six positions are hogged by the big three teams.

Mercedes sealed their Constructors’ title this weekend. Be nice for some variety.

*Apparently I added 10 extra points to Red Bull somewhere, at some point, hence them only gaining 2 points from last time. Doesn’t alter much, mind.

The next race is in a fortnight, in Mexico. Traditionally, I always forget what impact the high altitude and low air pressure has on the aerodynamics, so I’ll have to try and remember to check that.

Morris Dancer