Japan: pre-qualifying and pre-race 2019


Nice sporting scene in Japan, with the Rugby World Cup and now their Grand Prix. Or it would be, if it weren’t for the typhoon bearing down on both events, causing match cancellations and the probable delay and potential cancellation of F1 qualifying. If that happens (and thanks to Mr. B from PB for letting me know) then the second practice results would put Bottas on pole.

As it stands, qualifying is planned for Sunday morning, 2am UK time. The race start is scheduled for 6.10am. It seems the main concern for qualifying isn’t actually bad weather but clearing up the effects of the bad weather.

In first practice Bottas was fastest, less than a tenth ahead of Hamilton. Vettel was nearly a second down the road, ahead of Leclerc, with Verstappen ahead of Albon. Sainz then broke the Noah’s Ark procession, leading Perez and Stroll, with Norris rounding out the top 10.

The second practice results/potential starting grid were as follows: Bottas, Hamilton (the Finn a tenth ahead); Verstappen, Leclerc (a tenth apart); Vettel, Albon; Sainz, Perez; Gasly, Norris.

Starting outside the points positions were Raikkonen, Kvyat, Grosjean, Stroll, Giovinazzi, Magnussen, Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Kubica and Russell.

Pretty atrocious for Renault (they were 13th and 14th in first practice).

As an aside, the weather forecast for the race appears to be drizzle.

The bets that appeal most to me are:
Verstappen, winner each way, 7.5 (third the odds top 2)
Ricciardo, not to be classified, 3.25
Hulkenberg, not to be classified, 3.25

Verstappen has a good record around the Suzuka circuit and he’s very good in the wet (although drizzle won’t maximise his potential relative advantage over others). Against that is the fact the Red Bull has gone backwards compared to its rivals since the summer break, so if it’s dry or just a tiny bit wet then the pace disadvantage could just make it impossible, or very hard, for him to do well. He was pretty good in practice, though.

The Renault drivers have a poor reliability record this season, mostly due to reliability. In the drizzle and potentially starting almost at the very back, if second practice results become the grid, there’s a reasonably good chance they’ll make a mistake, be hit by someone else’s mistake, or end up with a reliability failure.

Tricky picking between these, particularly given I don’t know what the grid is. On balance, I think backing the Renault chaps to fail to be classified makes more sense. [I shall be miffed if Verstappen ends up on pole and takes the win].

I’m splitting one stake between Hulkenberg and Ricciardo not to be classified, at 3.25 each.

The race start, as I mentioned above, is 6.10am UK time. Uncertain if I’ll be awake in time as I traditionally oversleep for either qualifying or the race.

Morris Dancer

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