Mexico: pre-race 2018
Qualifying was close
and exciting, but, alas, not profitable. I really thought Red Bull
would be out of it, given the narrow gap in final practice and the
other engines’ swanky modes, but that shows what I know. Kudos to
Mr. Sandpit, who correctly suggested Ricciardo for pole (at around
7.6).
In the first part of
qualifying both Williams and Vandoorne failed to progress. No great
surprise. But both Haas cars dropped out at this stage too
(apparently, similar happened last year). Not sure why, but sometimes
certain circuits suit, or not, certain cars (McLaren tend to do well
in Australia, for example).
Gasly didn’t bother
running in Q2 due to his many penalties. Alonso failed to progress
and Hartley was last of those who set a time, albeit fourteen
thousandths off Perez. However, it looks like the Force Indias tried
something clever (or too clever by half, we’ll see tomorrow),
setting their times on the supersoft (hardest compound) so they’d
be just outside the top 10 and have a free tyre choice. Passing in
Mexico is very hard, and if those ahead have to pit early and get
stuck in traffic, it could prove quite cunning.
In the final part of
qualifying, I thought Hamilton had done enough, but Verstappen’s
time just pipped him. Yet, it was Ricciardo who went less than three
hundredths faster to deny the Dutchman his first pole (and the record
for the youngest man to start in 1st). Ricciardo, who had
looked behind his young team mate all weekend, was delirious.
Verstappen was not.
Vettel lines up
alongside Hamilton, and the first corner may very well see collisions
aplenty. Behind them is the Finnish row, Bottas ahead of Raikkonen.
Hulkenberg led the
second division, a few tenths ahead of Sainz. Leclerc and Ericsson
line up behind. I do wonder if they’ll be vulnerable to some
pouncing Pink Panthers. Or maybe Alonso, for that matter. His car
isn’t great but he’s often very tasty on the first lap.
At this stage, my
betting thoughts were:
Red Bull, top score
Ricciardo/Verstappen,
not be classified
Ocon, Alonso, Perez,
winner without the top 6
Red Bull are 1.4 to top
score. Given the incredibly high DNF rate, that does not appeal to
me.
Verstappen is 4.33 not
to be classified, Ricciardo is 4. Ricciardo has the highest DNF rate
this year, 7/18. That’s pretty tempting, especially given the first
corner can be a bit feisty.
In the betting without
the big 6 market (third the odds top 2 for each way), Ocon is 6.5,
Alonso 15, and Perez 13. Hmm. Worth considering. Particularly the
Force Indias.
I was surprised the
entire range of markets appeared to be up on Ladbrokes this morning
(I checked before 8am), as well as the 2019 Drivers’ title market,
so I had a perusal:
Ricciardo win,
Hulkenberg top 6, Perez points, Ferrari fastest lap, 34
Hamilton win, Bottas
podium, Hartley points, 51
If Ricciardo actually
finishes, he had a good chance of winning. Hulkenberg being top 6
requires someone ahead to drop out (possible) or suffer an accident
and traffic. Perez getting points could work with the contra-strategy
of Force India. Ferrari for fastest lap might be tricky, not
necessarily due to pace but because this requires clear air and the
right tyres at the right time. Quite a few contingencies, but it’s
34 for a reason.
Hamilton winning works
if the Red Bulls smash into one another, or plain break down. That
would then naturally (all else being equal) lift Bottas to the
podium. Hartley getting points is knottier. His pace isn’t all that
bad, but the problem is overtaking. Even if the Red Bulls double DNF,
that only raises Hartley to 12th. Nevertheless, 51 is
pretty long.
It’s not the most
exciting thing in the world, but right now Ricciardo at 4 to not be
classified just looks too good. He’s got a 39% DNF rate. Ocon to be
winner without the big 6 at 6.5 (each way) is also interesting.
In the end I decided to
back:
Ricciardo, not to be
classified, 4
One stake split equally
between Ocon and Perez to be winner without big 6 (each way), at 6.5
and 13 respectively
Race
starts a little after 7pm. I’m expecting a frantic first lap and
mostly a procession after that, but we’ll see.
Morris Dancer
Comments
Post a Comment