Japan: pre-qualifying 2018
Despite the approaching
typhoon, the weather forecast improved and practice on Friday was
dry. In first practice, Hamilton was top, about half a second ahead
of Bottas and Ricciardo. Raikkonen and Vettel were three-tenths off
the Aussie, with Verstappen a little further back. Ocon, Grosjean,
Leclerc, and Ericsson rounded out the top 10.
In second practice,
Hamilton again led Bottas by about half a second. Vettel was next,
albeit four-tenths off, with two-tenths between him and Verstappen,
then Verstappen and Raikkonen. Ricciardo was only a tiny margin off
the Finn. Ocon, Grosjean, Ericsson, and Hartley followed.
At this stage, it seems
that Ocon, Grosjean, and Sauber are in good shape. Hamilton seems to
have a tidy edge over everyone, and Bottas an edge over everyone
except his team mate. However, practice can be misleading and rain is
a strong, although just outside, possibility for qualifying.
Because third practice
is at 4am, I’m putting this post up now rather than in the
practice-qualifying interval. Qualifying is at 7am UK time tomorrow,
with the race start a little after 6am on Sunday.
Early betting thoughts
were:
Bottas each way pole
Ricciardo podium
Both Saubers to reach
Q3
Bottas is 5.5 for pole
(5.75 with boost). The same odds as last time. Again, I don’t
expect him to actually get it, but I do think he has a good chance of
being second. A potential pitfall is the possibility of
precipitation, however.
Ricciardo’s nearly 3
for a podium but I expect the odds to lengthen after qualifying, when
the Red Bull has a significant power disadvantage.
The latter market
didn’t show up. May only appear after final practice.
In addition, there’s
2.5 available for a winning margin of over 0.2s. Two credible ways
that happens: it rains and the gaps are weirdly enormous, or if
Hamilton just blasts everyone with a fantastic lap in the best car.
Both the Bottas and
margin bets are tempting. In the end, I decided to back the Bottas
bet, each way. Practice is far from perfect as an indicator, but the
margins are too significant, I think, to ignore. It also appears that
the fancy mystery that was giving Ferrari mega-power on the straights
has vanished.
Morris Dancer
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