Japan: post-race analysis 2018
Quite an eventful race.
The Leclerc tip didn’t remotely come off, but for reasons that will
become clear he was the unluckiest man since Thorstein Mirrorsmasher.
I maintain that the value was there but a catalogue of woe, some
self-inflicted but mostly bad luck, cost him. The silly 901 bet
didn’t come off, but the 3.75 on Ericsson to win his group
(Sirotkin, Vandoorne, and Stroll being the other members) mentioned
on PB did.
Off the line Hartley
left the handbrake on, Stroll, unusually, lost places, Vettel gained
great ground and Leclerc went backwards. At the sharp end it was
formation flying.
Vettel continued to
make significant gains, passing after the initial getaway. However,
Magnussen’s idiotic habit of weaving, this time on a straight in
front of Leclerc, caused a collision between the two. This led to an
early pit stop (and very slow nose changed) for the Sauber, which
switched onto medium tyres, and eventually destroyed Magnussen’s
tyre, bringing out a belated safety car. At this point, Ericsson also
dove into the pits, for the medium compound, Magnussen was forced to
box, and Vettel had climbed to about 4th.
After the safety car
period ended, Vettel tried an incredibly clumsy pass on Verstappen,
and caused a needless collision (Verstappen, incidentally, had a five
second penalty for an earlier unsafe return to the track after
accidentally running wide. I think that was a shade unfair,
particularly given Magnussen’s moronic manoeuvre received no
penalty). The Dutchman was essentially unscathed whereas Vettel was
either last or second to last. All the German’s good work was
undone.
Meanwhile, Ricciardo
was slicing through the field like a pirate at a whittling
competition. Unfortunately for Leclerc, he was bottled up by
Hulkenberg. The gap made it plain the Sauber was faster but not quite
by enough to effect a pass. When the pit stops happened, Hulkenberg,
unhelpfully, staying out for longer than almost everyone else,
Leclerc wasn’t quite highly placed enough. Worse still, he had two
fast Force Indias right behind him and his rear tyres were crumbling.
Leclerc was duly passed and had to pit (although it’s worth noting
Ericsson, right behind him on track, was able to keep his intact
right to the end of the race).
The Monegasque’s day
of misery came to an end when something on his car broke. He managed
to stop just by a marshals’ point, allowing the VSC rather than
full safety car to be deployed. Hulkenberg also had to retire,
returning to the pits to do so.
The Force Indias,
incidentally, did very well in pitting when they did, enjoying fresh
rubber and benefiting both from the Saubers pitting too early (and
thus being slow) and the Toro Rossos, particularly Gasly, pitting too
late and missing their opportunity.
At the sharp end,
Verstappen had closed in on Bottas. Whenever the pair encountered
traffic it was clear the Silver Arrow struggled a lot more, but in
fresh air the Finn was a couple of tenths faster. Despite the odd
lock up, Bottas was able to retain 2nd.
Verstappen and
Ricciardo got 3rd and 4th, a strong result for
the team given Ricciardo started 15th.
More woe for Ferrari.
Vettel’s head has gone, and the team’s strategic judgement is
iffy. Should’ve been far closer but they’ve contrived to throw it
away. As a neutral, it’s rather sad to see.
Perez and Ocon were 6th
and 8th respectively. Great points for Force India, who,
until very recently had 0 points
due to the takeover. The car was fast and solid throughout, and both
drivers put in a good shift. Grosjean got 7th,
another good result for Haas. Sainz nabbed the final point for
Renault, but the team really do need to clock up more or they’re
going to end up losing their place to Haas.
Toro
Rosso come away with a double finish and no points at all. Given
where they started, that’s pretty horrendous. Worse still, Gasly
showed they did have decent pace, but lost out severely in the pit
stops, whereas Hartley simply went backwards off the line and never
recovered.
So, serene for Hamilton
at the front, tense for the other podium places, and joyously chaotic
in the midfield scrap. Misjudgement by me to go for just Leclerc
rather than him and Perez, as per last time, to win outside the big
6. Still, it’s not difficult to pick winners when you know the
outcome.
Constructors’:
Mercedes 538
Ferrari 460
Red Bull 319
Renault 92
Haas 84
McLaren 58
Force India 43
Toro Rosso 30
Sauber 27
Williams 7
I think the top three
are effectively settled now, with Williams destined for last.
Everywhere else is up for grabs. Renault haven’t been scoring
nearly as many as Haas in recent races. Further down, I wouldn’t be
surprised if Force India overhauled McLaren (who must be grateful
they did so well early on, as they now seem to have either the
slowest or second slowest car. Saw a chap on Twitter remark that the
car had actually lost time from 2017, based on fastest laps before
the race). Toro Rosso will be ruing their failure to score today, as
they remain just 3 points ahead of Sauber.
Drivers’:
Hamilton 331
Vettel 264
Bottas 207
Raikkonen 196
Alas, it’s 2017 all
over again (or 2013, for that matter). A tight title race that just
falls to pieces and lets one of them waltz to victory. Bit of a
shame. Still, got the individual races to enjoy until the season’s
officially over.
Mildly annoyed with
myself for not backing Perez and Leclerc as per last time, but there
we are.
The next race is in the
US, in a fortnight. Always like the Texas circuit, as it’s proof
new tracks can be good, rather than identikit street circuit
processions.
Morris Dancer
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