Mexico: pre-qualifying 2018
We have just three
races left, and it’s thought this one is the best chance for Red
Bull to do well.
But first, a couple of
comments on the last race. Mercedes had excessive tyre wear,
something that they’ve attributed to a last minute change to water
pumps, with the cars effectively being incorrectly put back together
and a 50kg imbalance. That seems quite high, but there we are.
There’s also a wheel
story, with the team, facing a potential challenge from Ferrari,
closing up holes in the wheels which some say constitute a moveable
aerodynamic part (and therefore one that is illegal). It’s unclear
if they’ll be present in Mexico, but the change may well have cost
Mercedes a little pace.
Also worth noting the
massive Mercedes/Ferrari to Red Bull performance gap in qualifying
and the practically zero difference between all three teams in the
race.
From my 2016 post-race
analysis:
Notes to self for
future:
Very hard to pass in
Mexico. Thinner air reduces the effectiveness of DRS and slipstreams.
Stupid track surface
which means degradation is minimal. One stops very likely.
Not a car breaker.
If we do have a single
stop then that may be to the benefit of Red Bull, who seem relatively
gentle on their tyres. Could well suit Perez too, who is kind to his
tyres and also particularly adept on twisty tracks (and the Force
India’s not bad in a straight line).
Gasly has penalties for
new parts, and will be starting from the back.
Verstappen topped first
practice, half a second ahead of Ricciardo. The next two cars,
surprisingly, were Renaults, Sainz ahead of Hulkenberg, narrowly
ahead of Hamilton and Bottas. Vettel, Raikkonen, Hartley and Latini
(standing in for Ocon at Force India) rounded out the top 10.
In second practice, it
was the same top two although Verstappen’s lead over Ricciardo was
down to just a tenth and a half. Sainz was next albeit over a second
off the Red Bulls and one-thousandth of a second ahead of Vettel.
Hulkenberg was a tenth further back, fifteen-thousandths ahead of
Hartley, who was thirty-nine thousandths ahead of Hamilton, who was
thirty-three thousandths ahead of Raikkonen, who was
seven-thousandths ahead of Bottas, who was twenty-seven thousandths
ahead of Perez.
In short, there’s a
vast yawning chasm between Red Bull and the rest, in practice at
least, and two-tenths cover 2nd to 9th in
second practice. I fully expect things to be closer in qualifying
(party mode) but right now Red Bull are looking damned tasty. For
that matter, Renault and Hartley are looking competitive too.
At this stage, things
are intriguingly poised. Will Red Bull retain their seemingly massive
advantage? Can Renault hold onto being best of the rest? How will
Ferrari and Mercedes perform?
In third practice the
times are tricky to assess because it was a drying track with a lot
of traffic. Bottas’ time is not remotely representative as his
hydraulics died. Magnussen didn’t get out because his intercooler
broke. Verstappen was fastest, a quarter of a second ahead of
Hamilton. Vettel was a tiny margin further back, and there was nearly
half a second between him and Ricciardo (who suffered some battery
problems, as did Verstappen). Raikkonen and Leclerc were both within
a tenth of the Aussie, Leclerc’s time (briefly the fastest) very
impressive. A quarter of a second back was Sainz, then Gasly,
Ericsson, and Hulkenberg.
Cooler temperatures
seem to be relatively harming the Renault engine. Sauber are now
looking very tasty, and the pace of the top three teams seem pretty
damned close. There’s a small chance of rain during qualifying.
Given all that, I think
finding value might be rather tricky. Nevertheless, I had a quick
look.
Hmm. The only things
that catch my eye are Raikkonen, each way, for fastest qualifier or
the win, 21 and 17 respectively on Ladbrokes. Red Bull’s battery
problems and the cooler temperatures, plus the party mode, could make
qualifying the usual four horse race. If Bottas has a grid penalty
due to the hydraulic problem (or it just can’t be mended in time),
then suddenly we’re down to three cars (Hamilton, Vettel, and
Raikkonen).
Hmm. That 21 on
Raikkonen just looks too long to me. So I backed it, each way, for
the fastest qualifying time. Set up a hedge on the Ladbrokes Exchange
at 3.
I hadn’t intended to
back anything but the Red Bulls, Hamilton and Vettel are all under 5,
yet Raikkonen’s out at 21. In the last two qualifying sessions at
Mexico, he was ahead of Vettel once and behind him once. If he beats
Vettel then the odds on the bet coming off, maybe outright, are
pretty good.
Qualifying starts at
7pm, so the pre-race ramble will be up tomorrow. And keep an eye on
the weather forecast. Off-chance it may get slippery.
Morris Dancer
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